Best Actress in a Leading Role. May 2023

[Kostas]

I honestly don’t know if I see her doing better than Reinsve.

Keep in mind Reinsve had stiff competition with Oscar winner Penelope Cruz back then.

[Bee]

I think the standing is different with Huller being a bit more known and respected while Reinsve was relatively new. Plus, she had to fight with highbrow/critical support of KStew, Penelope, Alana Haim etc.,

[riverside]

We don't even know if 'Lee' will be released this year. Maybe they take it to Sundance next January ? And then release it fall 2024 in order to capitalize on Kate's goodwill thanks to 'The Regime' (not to mention 'Avatar 3' if she's in it) ?

Not to diminish Sundance in any way but Kate hasn´t had a relationship with that festival so far. This being her feature-film debut as a producer I´d expect her to navigate known waters and try to take it to TIFF, London or NY first. But I can see where you´re coming from and I wish that strategy had been applied to Ammonite. It certainly could have used Mare´s momentum.

[Bondsocial]

Lee already got UK’s distributor (Sky). I saw that the release date’s 17 December 2023. (not sure it’s true or not?)

So, it’s for this year.

SPC, Focus or Searchlight should buy it.

[Aswin]

Lee already got UK’s distributor (Sky). I saw that the release date’s 17 December 2023. (not sure it’s true or not?)

That's the date written on wikipedia, but I don't know where they got that info. Besides, December 17 is a Sunday...

[McTeague]

Hüller has two movies, both way more acclaimed than Worst Person. And she's more famous and has more goodwill than Reinsve had. Plus, one of them is 50% or more in English.

The comparison doesn't work, at all. Huller has many more chances to win a trifecta than Reinsve had.

[Antwone Chigurh]

Reinsve was out acted by Anders in her film. I don’t think she was ever really in the running.

[Aswin]

Hüller has two movies, both way more acclaimed than Worst Person.

You seem to conveniently forget that TWPITW was very much acclaimed (90 on Metacritic fwiw)

[alittle003]

Hmm, I guess Huller is likelier than I thought then. My reasoning was that she’s also a foreign performance in Neon-distributed flick and I assume I might be able to add a Cannes Best Actress win in the comparison soon. But I wasn’t aware of the scope of Huller’s stature and forgot about the film being partly in English. And yeah, Reinsve was barely fighting for 5th place all season long.

Maybe a Globe nom (ICS/international membership) and a BAFTA jury pick is possible for her and should be enough for the Oscar nom? It doesn’t hurt to also be the lead of one of the year’s most universally acclaimed films that’s quite possibly the frontrunner for International Feature either.

[babz]

Huller definitely needs to take atleast one, if not sweep, the trifecta. I don’t think Reinsve was that close in the end and her buzz came really late.

[Kostas]

So @EOLB, is confirmed Blitz as 2024 release?

[EOLB]

So @EOLB, is confirmed Blitz as 2024 release?

It sounds like it after what Thierry Fremaux said.

[juanpablonario]

Again, there have been hundreds of acclaimed performances that have looked strong in May, and then buzz have faded away. I also think you are wholeheartedly ignore Kate Winslet herself, you act as if she were some random name, who has to deliver something out of this world to happen at the Oscars, to beat names like Portman, Lee or Hüller (which is lolz). What Kate needs is enough #1 supporters to happen. Statistically, she has the best Oscar records here, you like it or not. And she is also the most respected. You concentrate too much on reviews and early buzz, and completely ignore awards season and the fact that most voters will put all these performances under one hat at the same time. Most will watch these films in November-December. There is no such thing as hard path in May, and there are no filled seats here. No voters are even thinking about Oscar buzz right now, it's just us, and some journalists who are trying to sell their headlines by writing superlatives early on, therefore generating some buzz for some of the contenders, that will either stick, or it won't. Lee definitely is for awards season push, since it's release date, its source material, its stars, etc. all suggest that. That alone makes Winslet a strong possibility. You know she will campaign, and once you watch Ammonite, Mare of Easttown and I Am Ruth, you will also know she has this career buzz for her new era for a reason. People are genuinely excited about her new era. They support her for it. Kidman had it. Blanchett had it. Winslet has it.

And that's my final take on this.

I'm gonna tattoo all of this on my back.

[Kostas]

It sounds like it after what Thierry Fremaux said.

Thanks!

[McTeague]

I think people are reading too much in that press conference, and perhaps reading it wrongly. Frémaux saying it would be in Cannes 2024 was just kidding, a flattery, he was just implying he likes McQueen’s work and would want to always have it in Cannes. It was never serious.

McQueen said he’s working on it, and, unless I’m mistaken, filming already finished, so, if it’s in post and McQueen is working on it, it could still be out this year. Of course not ready for Venice/TIFF, but we’ve always had films released under the wire in December. I think it will depend on how much they all (McQueen, the studio) feel like they have a contender or not.

[alilou]

So yeah, AS OF TODAY, I'd say Gladstone is well positioned to win in lead, and I foresee no potential challengers except for Barrino's question mark.

I can't see her winning in lead for that role.

[android]

Barrino
Bening
Huller (Anatomy of a Fall)
Lee
Portman (voted for Winslet tho)

[Jman23]

With how weak this field is I can see Jessica Lange winning

[android]

With how weak this field is I can see Jessica Lange winning

Lol Bening will win a first before Lange wins a third.
Shame that Glenda isn't in contention too.

[TailSpin]

Reinsve was out acted by Anders in her film. I don’t think she was ever really in the running.

But she definitely was . Because her film got a Screenplay nom and came close to a BP nom, in that 11-15 or so range. She was probably 8th after Gaga and Haim.