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Thread: 2023 BAFTA Predictions

  1. #21
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    Quote Originally Posted by Kostas View Post
    If the AACTA is an indication (Waiting for London Critics), "The Fabelmans" could be on risk over Elvis (Luhrmann has better record at BAFTA)
    London Critics is not going to nominate Elvis (unless you meant Fabelmans missing, which is the likelier option).
    "Logic, my dear Zoe, merely enables one to be wrong with authority."

  2. #22
    Senior Member Mason's Avatar
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    When are the London critics announcing the noms?

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    Quote Originally Posted by Mason View Post
    When are the London critics announcing the noms?
    Next Wednesday (usually around noon British time)
    "Logic, my dear Zoe, merely enables one to be wrong with authority."

  4. #24
    Senior Member Mason's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Wheeljack View Post
    Next Wednesday (usually around noon British time)
    Thanks

  5. #25
    Senior Member cragakellogs's Avatar
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    Baftas 2023: which titles are in the running for outstanding British film?
    https://www.screendaily.com/features...177568.article

    This year presents a similarly fascinating mix of contenders, including a number of titles that could make waves across multiple categories at the Baftas — and, in fact, Oscars.

    Given the acclaim that has greeted The Banshees Of Inisherin — including Venice Film Festival wins for Martin McDonagh in screenplay and Colin Farrell in actor — it would be remarkable if the dark comedy drama failed to score an outstanding British film Bafta nomination. Writer/director McDonagh and his producers Graham Broadbent and Peter Czernin have good form in the category: together, they were nominated for In Bruges, Seven Psychopaths and Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri, winning for the latter in 2018.

    The Searchlight Pictures and Film4-backed feature is being positioned across multiple categories, and is expected to deliver a slew of nominations. So far, Banshees looks like the British film to beat.

    Giving it a run for its money, however, could be another Searchlight title: Empire Of Light, written and directed by Sam Mendes, and produced by Mendes and Pippa Harris. This personal film, which also offers a love letter to cinema, is set on the English south coast in the early 1980s, and weaves in a tender romance with perspectives on both mental illness and the racial tensions of the era. Olivia Colman, Micheal Ward, Toby Jones and Colin Firth could all figure in the acting categories — and Empire Of Light is considered a contender across the board, including for best film, director, screenplay and craft.

    Titles directed by Mendes have won outstanding British film twice before: Skyfall in 2013 and 1917 in 2020.
    Fresh blood

    Oliver Hermanus lacks the Bafta track record of both McDonagh and Mendes — in fact, he has never been nominated, although his last film Moffie was an outstanding British debut nominee in 2021 for producer and co-writer Jack Sidey (South Africa-born Hermanus was not eligible for this award, and Moffie was not his debut feature).

    This year, Hermanus directs a potential major Bafta contender with Living, adapted by Nobel Prize-winning novelist Kazuo Ishiguro from Akira Kurosawa’s 1952 film Ikiru, and produced by Stephen Woolley and Elizabeth Karlsen for Number 9 Films. Bill Nighy stars as a reserved London County Council bureaucrat who is shaken from his life of seeming weary resignation by a medical diagnosis.

    Living has impressed audiences during its sweep of major festivals this year — including Sundance, Venice, Telluride, Toronto and BFI London — and has proved a notable box-office hit in the UK for Lionsgate, with $4.2m (£3.4m) to date. Films produced by Woolley have secured an outstanding British Bafta win and nominations before: a win for The Crying Game in 1993 and nominations for Backbeat in 1995 and Made In Dagenham in 2011.

    If The Banshees Of Inisherin, Empire Of Light and Living look set to be the three big beasts of the category, also prowling nearby is The Wonder, directed by Chile’s Sebastian Lelio, and adapted from the Emma Donoghue novel by Lelio, Donoghue and Alice Birch. The amply credentialed film, set in Ireland in 1862, stars Florence Pugh as an English nurse tasked with verifying a seeming local miracle: a child (newcomer Kila Lord Cassidy) who has been fasting for months, surviving on “manna from heaven”.

    The Netflix-backed title played Telluride, Toronto and BFI London film festivals, and earned 12 nominations at the British Independent Film Awards (Bifa), winning for Matthew Herbert’s score.

    The big winner at the Bifas this year was Aftersun, the debut feature of writer/director Charlotte Wells, and starring Normal People’s Paul Mescal as a young father taking his 11-year-old daughter on holiday to a Turkish beach resort.

    Aftersun won seven awards at the Bifas, including the top prize of best British independent film, which is determined by Bifa’s full voting membership — auguring well for its chances in Bafta’s outstanding British film category.

    Georgia Oakley’s Blue Jean, likewise had a good showing at the Bifas, winning for lead performance (Rosy McEwen), supporting performance (Kerrie Hayes), debut screenwriter (Oakley) and casting (Shaheen Baig). This Newcastle-*set drama, playing out against the enactment of the UK’s homophobic Section 28 legislation in 1988, looks a likely jury pick for the Bafta — just as long as it makes the longlist in the British chapter vote.

    That longlist has been reduced from 20 to 15 titles this year. It is good news if you are on it — you have a higher chance of a nomination. But it is tough for films that are frantically jostling for the attention of voters.

    Good Luck To You, Leo Grande — which received a best British independent film Bifa nomination alongside Aftersun, Blue Jean, Living and The Wonder — has a strong chance of Bafta nominations. The story of a widower (Emma Thompson) seeking sexual fulfilment for the first time in her life with a sex worker (Daryl McCormack) is written by Katy Brand and directed by Sophie Hyde (Animals). It has been winning fans since premiering at Sundance, and Lionsgate steered it to more than $1.3m (£1.1m) at the UK and Ireland box office.

    Lesley Manville, a respected actress whose leading screen roles have hitherto tended to be on television, steps into the big-screen limelight in Mrs Harris Goes To Paris, adapted from the Paul Gallico novella. Manville received supporting actress Oscar and Bafta nominations for Phantom Thread in 2018, and now has her best shot at the same for leading actress, while multiple Oscar winner Jenny Beavan should receive awards attention for her costumes, which play a central role in the film’s storyline. The Universal Pictures-backed film has proved a hit in multiple territories, including North America, UK-*Ireland and Australia, and had reached $28m worldwide at press time.

    If the above eight titles are all nominated for the outstanding British film Bafta, that leaves only a couple of slots open. The Son, directed by Florian Zeller and adapted from his own stage play by Zeller and Christopher Hampton, could follow the path blazed by the duo’s The Father — which won the actor and adapted screenplay Baftas in 2021, losing outstanding British film to Promising Young Woman.

    Similarly, The Lost King comes from the creative team behind Philomena, which in 2014 won the adapted screenplay Bafta for Steve Coogan and Jeff Pope, and was nominated for outstanding British film, losing to Gravity.

    The Swimmers — the second feature from My Brother The Devil director Sally El Hosaini — is based on the true story of Syrian sisters Sara and Yusra Mardini. Co-scripted by El Hosaini and Jack Thorne, the refugee drama opened Toronto and is an inspirational story of courage and determination.

    Roald Dahl’s Matilda The Musical proved a riotous crowdpleaser when it opened the BFI London Film Festival in October, and is a UK and Ireland box-office hit for Sony. Directed by the original stage musical’s Matthew Warchus, the film’s strong cast — including Emma Thompson, Lashana Lynch, Stephen Graham and Andrea Riseborough — could help position the film as worthy of consideration by awards voters.

    Joining The Wonder are three more period films with strong female characters — Frances O’Connor’s Emily starring Emma Mackey, Laure de Clermont-Tonnerre’s Lady Chatterley’s Lover with Emma Corrin, and Lena Dunham’s Catherine Called Birdy with Bella Ramsey — that will be vying for inclusion in the outstanding British film category.

    Set in the more-recent past are comedy whodunnit See How They Run, love-triangle drama My Policeman, and comic tale of unlikely sporting hero The Phantom Of The Open. The jury could cast its eyes in the direction of any one of these titles, as long as they make the longlist in the chapter vote. The same is true of Alex Garland’s Men, starring Jessie Buckley and Rory Kinnear in a multiple role — although the film’s genre positioning, adjacent to horror, may prove divisive with voters.

    Mark Jenkin won the outstanding British debut Bafta in 2020 with Bait, and was nominated for outstanding British film. He will be hoping to repeat the latter honour with his folk-horror follow-up Enys Men.

    Peter Strickland’s Flux Gourmet found plenty of favour with Bifa voters, who nominated the film in seven categories and awarded it the win for best sound, although none of Strickland’s previous four features have earned any Bafta nominations.

    UK indies that might find more favour are Agnieszka Smoczynska’s The Silent Twins and Jim Archer’s Brian And Charles. Premiering respectively at Cannes and Sundance, they both showcase joint lead performances: one with Letitia Wright and Tamara Lawrance as twins who for many years speak only to each other; the other with David Earl and Chris Hayward as an inventor and his robot that comes miraculously to life.

    In total, 57 films have qualified for the outstanding British film Bafta, including admired documentaries such as My Old School and Eric Ravilious: Drawn To War. Despite the relatively capacious number of nominees the category now offers, it will — as always — be a tough fight to land a nomination.
    The Liver Bird soars


  6. #26
    Gremmo EOLB's Avatar
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    Useful list. Thanks, dear.

    Blunt Force

  7. #27
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    With 10 nominees now, that category feels like Oprah giving out TVs to her audience.

    I'd guess:
    Banshees
    Living
    Empire of Light
    Good Luck to You, Leo Grande
    Aftersun
    The Wonder
    Blue Jean
    Emily
    The Silent Twins
    Matilda, the Musical
    #BRAZ

  8. #28
    Senior Member Dan_Quixote's Avatar
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    So, do the top three end up getting automatically nominated in the acting categories now? I missed the new rule. Is it still top two in Director?

  9. #29
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    Quote Originally Posted by Dan_Quixote View Post
    So, do the top three end up getting automatically nominated in the acting categories now? I missed the new rule. Is it still top two in Director?
    Top three in acting, top two in director. The latter was all-juried the last two years.

  10. #30
    Senior Member cragakellogs's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by EOLB View Post
    Useful list. Thanks, dear.
    No worries
    The Liver Bird soars


  11. #31
    Senior Member cragakellogs's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Brazilianmovies View Post
    With 10 nominees now, that category feels like Oprah giving out TVs to her audience.

    I'd guess:
    Banshees
    Living
    Empire of Light
    Good Luck to You, Leo Grande
    Aftersun
    The Wonder
    Blue Jean
    Emily
    The Silent Twins
    Matilda, the Musical
    After today's longlist, I'll probably predict The Swimmers instead of the overlooked Silent Twins and Mrs Harris Goes to Paris for Emily. However, I could see Lady Chatterley's Lover making the cut too.
    The Liver Bird soars


  12. #32
    Senior Member stugohiglitz's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by stugohiglitz View Post
    Lashana for Supporting actress, Thuso for Rising star and Woman King for casting at the very least
    Let's go Lashana

    Fingers crossed for Thuso

  13. #33
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    Quote Originally Posted by GeorgeEastman View Post
    TĮR, Top Gun, EEAAO, Banshees, Fabelmans

    Alt: Elvis/Avatar
    Welp @GeorgeEastman

  14. #34
    Montgomery Clift GeorgeEastman's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Bee View Post
    To Elvis or Not to Elvis, that's the question

    "And there on top of his head were faces like she had seen only in a dream, almost too beautiful to be recognized as people at all:
    the most beautiful woman and the most beautiful man in the world, she the female version of him, and he the male version of her
    "

  15. #35
    Senior Member theredboy's Avatar
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    I currently have
    The Banshees
    Elvis
    Everything Everywhere
    Tar
    Top Gun

    But I’m kinda thinking something out of AQOTWF, Aftersun, or Triangle will get in.

  16. #36
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    Banshees, Elvis, EEAAO, and Top Gun comfortably in. TAR, All Quiet or Triangle for the last slot

  17. #37
    Senior Member theredboy's Avatar
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    I am kinda feeling Triangle, but EEAAO, Banshees, and Triangle would be a 3/5 comedy lineup…

  18. #38
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    Waking up this thread but I'm concerned when I see multiple people predicting All Quiet to only win International Film at BAFTA. It didn't lead nominations for nothing. It's coming for multiple wins here and will probably lead the winners. I have it winning 5 awards here with the potential for more.

  19. #39
    Senior Member Mason's Avatar
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    Most people are predicting All Quiet in Cinematography too but I agree it's being underestimated overall.

    I'm kind of surprised so many are going with EEAAO in Editing. They LOVE planes/cars and racing. A more traditional and clean editing like Top Gun makes a lot of sense here.

  20. #40
    Senior Member Jman23's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Mason View Post
    Most people are predicting All Quiet in Cinematography too but I agree it's being underestimated overall.

    I'm kind of surprised so many are going with EEAAO in Editing. They LOVE planes/cars and racing. A more traditional and clean editing like Top Gun makes a lot of sense here.
    True! I also think All Quiet could suprise in one of Sound or Editing but I don't know which one so I'm just putting Top Gun in both.

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