Ben Aldridge - Spoiler Alert: The Hero Dies
Daniel Brühl - All Quiet on the Western Front
Diego Calva - Babylon
Timothée Chalamet - Bones & All
Paul Dano - The Fabelmans
Ralph Fiennes - The Menu
Brendan Gleeson - The Banshee of Inisherin
Tom Hanks - Elvis
Woody Harrelson - Triangle of Sadness
Ethan Hawke - Raymond and Ray
Brian Tyree Henry - Causeway
Judd Hirsch - The Fabelmans
Anthony Hopkins - Armageddon Time
Tenoch Huerta - Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
Barry Keoghan - The Banshees of Inisherin
Luke Macfarlane - Bros
Ewan McGregor - Raymond and Ray
Brad Pitt - Babylon
Ke Huy Quan - Everything Everywhere All at Once
Eddie Redmayne - The Good Nurse
Ashton Sanders - I Wanna Dance with Somebody
Miles Teller - Top Gun: Maverick
Stanley Tucci - I Wanna Dance with Somebody
Ben Whishaw - Women Talking
Other (Write-in your predictions)
Anyone else get the feeling that Ethan Hawke is being underestimated the supporting race? I have felt this way all along, and now the trailer.
Ethan Hawke is criminally underrated. I know he is acclaimed but not nearly as often as he should
Supporting Legend Mara since 2009
Supporting King Chalamét since 2017
Supporting Queen Russell since 2019
On one hand he is due to never winning an Oscar, on the other, he has an amazing career many would be jealous of: has diverse performances in many genres, face of a critically beloved and popular trilogy (Before), collaborations with many auteurs and respected directors like Weir, Linklater, Cuaron, Lumet, Eggers. He feels like the perfect candidate for a BSA 'career win' in his 60/70s.
Y'all need to make room for him in your predictions.
Mark Rylance - Bones & All (Winner)
Brendan Gleeson - The Banshee of Inisherin
Tom Hanks - Elvis
Woody Harrelson - Triangle of Sadness
Judd Hirsch - The Fabelmans
Paul Dano - The Fabelmans
Ralph Fiennes - The Menu
Anthony Hopkins - The Son
Eddie Redmayne - The Good Nurse
Not really, it's 50% RT and 57 MC. As for Hawke, he gets more of "one of the few bright spots in the film" (The Wrap) kind of response, it's not a necessarily raved performance. The Film Stage review says it's a type of performance he can do in his sleep. I don't think he'll be nominated for anything, let alone Oscar.
Eddie is campaigning and would be Netflix's #1 priority here. I think we should start considering him a possibility. Even Feinberg had him in his top 5.
He might be 7th and could hit a precursor or two but the film is getting no other nominations and the top six in this category are all movies that are going to be BP nominees so I don't see any reason to believe he'll get in over any of them. I don't really think there's any need to overthink this category. The top six here are way out in front of everybody else. It's just a matter of predicting who eventually falls out.
Redmayne is literally doing Q&A’s at every fest the film is playing in and I sense that the film will be big on Netflix. I think he’s a pretty solid GG/SAG threat, but I can’t see him actually making it in at the Oscars if the film is a nonstarter outside of him.