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View Poll Results: Choose the 5 potential nominees

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  • Naomi Ackie - I Wanna Dance with Somebody

    62 35.84%
  • Cate Blanchett - Tár

    161 93.06%
  • Jessica Chastain - The Good Nurse

    4 2.31%
  • Olivia Colman - Empire of Light

    90 52.02%
  • Viola Davis - The Woman King

    72 41.62%
  • Danielle Deadwyler - Till

    74 42.77%
  • Ana de Armas - Blonde

    30 17.34%
  • Jennifer Lawrence - Causeway

    9 5.20%
  • Carey Mulligan - She Said

    8 4.62%
  • Florence Pugh - The Wonder

    3 1.73%
  • Margot Robbie - Babylon

    132 76.30%
  • Taylor Russell - Bones & All

    3 1.73%
  • Léa Seydoux - One Fine Morning

    3 1.73%
  • Tang Wei - Decision to Leave

    7 4.05%
  • Anya Taylor-Joy - The Menu

    0 0%
  • Emma Thompson - Good Luck to You, Leo Grande

    4 2.31%
  • Anamaria Vartolomei - Happening

    4 2.31%
  • Michelle Yeoh - Everything Everywhere All at Once

    160 92.49%
  • Other (Write-in your Predictions)

    14 8.09%
Multiple Choice Poll.
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Thread: Best Actress in a Leading Role. September II 2022

  1. #981
    Senior Member kellis's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Wheeljack View Post
    The Father had 4 Globe noms, including a bit surprising BP nom.
    And Chadwick was still in the peak momentum for his narrative in the middle of a very contentious time for the Globes. Most people still predicted the Globe for him despite The Father’s nomination performance.

  2. #982
    Senior Member DameOctaviaSpencer's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Roberto View Post
    No one in this race has Boseman's narrative though. The fact that Hopkins won despite such fierce competition actually shows how strong he was.
    Quote Originally Posted by kellis View Post
    He only lost those because Boseman’s narrative was stronger at that time and he was sight unseen for most. He was seen as undeniable once people started watching the film leading up to Oscars night. He wouldn’t have won against the Globe, SAG and Trifecta winner with only a BAFTA win to his name if he wasn’t undeniable. He was very strong and probably would’ve ended most winners this century.
    I'm not arguing that Hopkins didn't have passion, nor that Boseman's narrative didn't matter in the race, but undeniable he was not, and his undeniable raves didn't matter in plenty of places including critics and some of the precursors.
    Keep up with me and my delusions in Oscar Paradise

  3. #983
    Senior Member Gabriel Lisbon's Avatar
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    Hopkins did win the big prize at the end, so denied he was not after all (:

  4. #984
    Senior Member kellis's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by DameOctaviaSpencer View Post
    I'm not arguing that Hopkins didn't have passion, nor that Boseman's narrative didn't matter in the race, but undeniable he was not, and his undeniable raves didn't matter in plenty of places including critics and some of the precursors.
    Lol critics complained all season long about screener issues and there was no way that SAG wasn’t copy-pasting Chadwick from the Globes, especially when Ma Rainey was very well liked at SAG. I already argued above about the Globe loss too. You can try to take down any argument for Cate by trying to take down the arguments for Hopkins but it’s not going to work well when most people agree he was undeniable and it was seen as career best work from a living legend (quite similar to Cate oop)

  5. #985
    Montgomery Clift GeorgeEastman's Avatar
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    Yeah comparing to Hopkins is like worst case for Yeoh cuz it shows that better reviews for a performance can beat even the biggest narrative ever, so the narrative argument dies there

    "And there on top of his head were faces like she had seen only in a dream, almost too beautiful to be recognized as people at all:
    the most beautiful woman and the most beautiful man in the world, she the female version of him, and he the male version of her
    "

  6. #986
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    Mara is coming…

  7. #987
    Senior Member electric_storm's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Mike Aiello View Post
    I was trying to think of cases where an arguably supporting performance went lead in the end. I'm not sure if McDormand was always campaigned lead (1996 was before my time Oscar wise), but I do know from film history that Patricia Neal won a few awards in supporting and seems like someone who could have won either category...so that may be the best precedent (although a long time ago).

    As for Williams, I wonder (in the other direction) if a comparable scenario would have been Talia Shire in "Rocky"...from what I've read, she was campaigned and won some things in supporting in a film that was arguably a firm contender in the BP race (and in 1976, "Rocky" won). Additionally, people said she would have been a slam dunk to win there (and look, we got Beatrice Straight setting a record for a short performance to win Supporting instead!) and when she went to lead, she lost to Faye Dunaway in "Network".

    Not sure if those comparisons are comparable...just saying what's kind of coming to mind. Valerie Perrine is another comparison, except that she was coattailing moreso off Dustin Hoffman and "Lenny" likely was not in the BP frontrunner status that "Fabelmans" (and to a lesser extent, "Rocky") is.
    There's Louise Fletcher too, she was RU in supporting at NYFCC and would have won either category.

  8. #988
    Senior Member Solarie's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by JeepCSC View Post
    Mara is coming…
    Like she did with Nightmare Alley?

    EMMY 2022 NOMINEE REESE WITHERSPOON

  9. #989
    Multi-Award Winning Madealah's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Matt24 View Post
    I think it's fair to argue TAR won't have quite the same level of broad appeal/accessibility as EEAO, Fabelmans, and Babylon (this could be the very rare year where the top 3 movies all have Best Actress nominees). The question is, will it matter if Blanchett has by far the most acclaimed and respected performance?
    Right, I don't think the movie will matter as much as the performance. She swept a season with just a screenplay nod and drug Sally in a few places. She can do it on her own.

    Actress isn't like other categories. I don't know why AW suddenly feels an actress needs a full nomination package in order to win an Oscar.

    It's sort of a reversal matter, depending on how much they love Cate they could build up a TAR package around the love for her performance. Not guaranteed but I don't think it will change the possibility of her winning.

    BEING SAID: Williams is perceived as overdue and she does have a great role.

  10. #990
    Senior Member Heroesrule99's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by JeepCSC View Post
    Mara is coming…
    4 whites in best actress ON LOCK

  11. #991
    Multi-Award Winning Madealah's Avatar
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    Correct me if I'm wrong but I'm pretty sure Kate Winslet was campaigned in Supporting for The Reader and Leading for Revolutionary Road.

    Correct me if I'm wrong but I'm pretty sure Keisha Castle Hughes was campaigned in Supporting for Whale Rider and they nominated her in Leading.

    The Academy can change people. I think if they reject Williams in Lead, they will nominate her in Supporting ala Lakeith Stanfield. They don't seem to have any issue of putting leads there (Stanfield, the young lady from True Grit whose name I'm blanking...)

  12. #992
    Senior Member klariso's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by JeepCSC View Post
    Mara is coming…
    to bed.
    TEAM MICHELLE!!!


  13. #993
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    Quote Originally Posted by Madealah View Post
    Correct me if I'm wrong but I'm pretty sure Kate Winslet was campaigned in Supporting for The Reader and Leading for Revolutionary Road.

    Correct me if I'm wrong but I'm pretty sure Keisha Castle Hughes was campaigned in Supporting for Whale Rider and they nominated her in Leading.

    The Academy can change people. I think if they reject Williams in Lead, they will nominate her in Supporting ala Lakeith Stanfield. They don't seem to have any issue of putting leads there (Stanfield, the young lady from True Grit whose name I'm blanking...)
    There’s no reason they would do that other than appeasing to the pundits denialism though And that would be like rewarding a screaming child by giving them what they want after they misbehave.

    Michelle never “switched” or anything, people simply decided it was a supporting role one year in advance and are having trouble adapting to the actual reality.



    La Chinoise - 1967
    The Dog.

  14. #994
    Senior Member electric_storm's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Madealah View Post
    Correct me if I'm wrong but I'm pretty sure Kate Winslet was campaigned in Supporting for The Reader and Leading for Revolutionary Road.

    Correct me if I'm wrong but I'm pretty sure Keisha Castle Hughes was campaigned in Supporting for Whale Rider and they nominated her in Leading.

    The Academy can change people. I think if they reject Williams in Lead, they will nominate her in Supporting ala Lakeith Stanfield. They don't seem to have any issue of putting leads there (Stanfield, the young lady from True Grit whose name I'm blanking...)
    It's pretty rare for the Academy to down grade someone to supporting after a lead campaign though. I heard something about this happening to James Cromwell. Stanfield I don't remember where he was campaigned, that nomination was a total surprise.

  15. #995
    Multi-Award Winning Madealah's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Protheus View Post
    There’s no reason they would do that other than appeasing to the pundits denialism though And that would be like rewarding a screaming child by giving them what they want after they misbehave.

    Michelle never “switched” or anything, people simply decided it was a supporting role one year in advance and are having trouble adapting to the actual reality.
    I don't think it's that odious to want someone you really like to win an Oscar, though. Especially if she could EASILY walk away with it in Supporting.

    But, I actually thought the ruckus was that Williams 'switched' categories.

  16. #996
    Senior Member DameOctaviaSpencer's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Madealah View Post
    Correct me if I'm wrong but I'm pretty sure Kate Winslet was campaigned in Supporting for The Reader and Leading for Revolutionary Road.

    Correct me if I'm wrong but I'm pretty sure Keisha Castle Hughes was campaigned in Supporting for Whale Rider and they nominated her in Leading.

    The Academy can change people. I think if they reject Williams in Lead, they will nominate her in Supporting ala Lakeith Stanfield. They don't seem to have any issue of putting leads there (Stanfield, the young lady from True Grit whose name I'm blanking...)
    I think with Williams being the "main lady" in the cast, they will have no issue with her here. It's not like she's competing for attention with another co-lead (Kaluuya - Stanfield) or herself (Winslet).
    Keep up with me and my delusions in Oscar Paradise

  17. #997
    Multi-Award Winning Madealah's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by electric_storm View Post
    It's pretty rare for the Academy to down grade someone to supporting after a lead campaign though. I heard something about this happening to James Cromwell. Stanfield I don't remember where he was campaigned, that nomination was a total surprise.
    He was campaigned in lead.


  18. #998
    Multi-Award Winning Madealah's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by DameOctaviaSpencer View Post
    I think with Williams being the "main lady" in the cast, they will have no issue with her here. It's not like she's competing for attention with another co-lead (Kaluuya - Stanfield) or herself (Winslet).
    But can she win Best Actress?



    Perhaps she can but it does seem betwixt Blanchett and Yeoh.

  19. #999
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    Yeah her being the lead female character will keep her safe.

  20. #1000
    I am a homosexual Protheus's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Madealah View Post
    I don't think it's that odious to want someone you really like to win an Oscar, though. Especially if she could EASILY walk away with it in Supporting.

    But, I actually thought the ruckus was that Williams 'switched' categories.
    I think outside the pundits Twitter bubble, people have accepted the placement quite easily though.

    The news of MW going lead has ONLY been released two days ago and she’s already #6 in Golddderby combined Odds, surpassing Ana de Armas

    Risk to not even get a nomination where, Feinberg and co? She’s nearly cracking the top 5 already and it’s not even a week since news are out.

    Considering she will only grow more in the next days until people catch up with the news (Goldderby just announced the change on their front page an hour ago), I’m curious to see until where she goes in there. I think she at least will surpass Viola Davis and Olivia Colman minimum in there.

    The top 10 there so far is like:

    1. Cate Blanchett
    2. Michelle Yeoh
    3. Margot Robbie
    4. Olivia Colman
    5. Viola Davis
    6. Michelle Williams
    7. Ana de Armas
    8. Danielle Deadwyler
    9. Naomi Ackie
    10. Jennifer Lawrence



    La Chinoise - 1967
    The Dog.

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