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View Poll Results: Choose the 5 potential nominees

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  • Naomi Ackie - I Wanna Dance with Somebody

    68 35.05%
  • Cate Blanchett - Tár

    181 93.30%
  • Jessica Chastain - The Good Nurse

    4 2.06%
  • Olivia Colman - Empire of Light

    98 50.52%
  • Viola Davis - The Woman King

    85 43.81%
  • Danielle Deadwyler - Till

    81 41.75%
  • Ana de Armas - Blonde

    34 17.53%
  • Jennifer Lawrence - Causeway

    10 5.15%
  • Carey Mulligan - She Said

    8 4.12%
  • Florence Pugh - The Wonder

    3 1.55%
  • Margot Robbie - Babylon

    146 75.26%
  • Taylor Russell - Bones & All

    3 1.55%
  • Léa Seydoux - One Fine Morning

    3 1.55%
  • Tang Wei - Decision to Leave

    7 3.61%
  • Anya Taylor-Joy - The Menu

    1 0.52%
  • Emma Thompson - Good Luck to You, Leo Grande

    6 3.09%
  • Anamaria Vartolomei - Happening

    4 2.06%
  • Michelle Yeoh - Everything Everywhere All at Once

    180 92.78%
  • Other (Write-in your Predictions)

    20 10.31%
Multiple Choice Poll.
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Thread: Best Actress in a Leading Role. September II 2022

  1. #1481
    Senior Member Mason's Avatar
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    When Spielberg only wins Screenplay at GG


  2. #1482
    Senior Member Mike Aiello's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Rampling View Post
    Deadwyler will put up a good fight but Blanchett is ultimately taking this. Williams lost her Oscar the moment she went lead. Yeoh is a non-factor.
    Considering Yeoh is considered (by many) likely to win the GG and could put up a fight at SAG who likes populist choices, I'm not sure how she's a "non-factor" whereas Deadwyler will put up a good fight (who I don't think will win the GG against Blanchett/Williams or SAG against Blanchett/even Yeoh)?

    Unless you're suggesting Deadwyler is winning industry awards up to the Oscar and then losing to Blanchett.

  3. #1483
    Senior Member Solarie's Avatar
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    Maybe I'm dumb but I still can't understand why people keep entertaining Yeoh taking SAG. SAG is as basic as it gets and they will not give a win to genre performance. Imo, she's closer to being snubbed there than winning.

  4. #1484
    Gremmo EOLB's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Solarie View Post
    Maybe I'm dumb but I still can't understand why people keep entertaining Yeoh taking SAG. SAG is as basic as it gets and they will not give a win to genre performance. Imo, she's closer to being snubbed there than winning.
    Out of the three major precursors, they've been the kindest to populist genre options at least in terms of nominations.

    Blunt Force

  5. #1485
    Senior Member Solarie's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by EOLB View Post
    Out of the three major precursors, they've been the kindest to populist genre options at least in terms of nominations.
    It's a genre movie, a very populist one and yet Yeoh's performance is sort of muted, it's not bait they are going for.

  6. #1486
    Senior Member boondoggle's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Solarie View Post
    Maybe I'm dumb but I still can't understand why people keep entertaining Yeoh taking SAG. SAG is as basic as it gets and they will not give a win to genre performance. Imo, she's closer to being snubbed there than winning.
    I am not sure where you get that considering Black Panther won SAG Ensemble against much more typical Oscar bait like A Star is Born and Bohemian Rhapsody. SAG has also shown that they favor BIPOC performers and films so it makes sense that EEAAO that centers on the Asian American experience would do well. SAG also skews younger and more diverse than other awards bodies so I don't think "genre" is really as issue here. Plus EEAAO is very popular movie with your typical moviegoer so it's probably something that is going to appeal the typical SAG voter. FInally, SAG nominates films from genres that are typically ignored by AMPAS like broad comedies and romantic comedies so I don't think the humor or multiverse stuff is really all that alienating but actually an asset against more traditional films.

  7. #1487
    Senior Member Solarie's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by boondoggle View Post
    I am not sure where you get that considering Black Panther won SAG Ensemble against much more typical Oscar bait like A Star is Born and Bohemian Rhapsody. SAG has also shown that they favor BIPOC performers and films so it makes sense that EEAAO that centers on the Asian American experience would do well. SAG also skews younger and more diverse than other awards bodies so I don't think "genre" is really as issue here. Plus EEAAO is very popular movie with your typical moviegoer so it's probably something that is going to appeal the typical SAG voter. FInally, SAG nominates films from genres that are typically ignored by AMPAS like broad comedies and romantic comedies so I don't think the humor or multiverse stuff is really all that alienating but actually an asset against more traditional films.
    Well, that's my prediction, you don't have to agree with it. Ensemble comparison doesn't work either, because we're not talking about the ensemble category. We're talking about Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Leading Role.

    I really struggle to see where Yeoh fits between those names.

    Jessica Chastain - 'The Eyes of Tammy Faye'
    Viola Davis - 'Ma Rainey's Black Bottom'
    Renée Zellweger - 'Judy'
    Glenn Close - 'The Wife'
    Frances McDormand - 'Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri'
    Emma Stone - 'La La Land'
    Brie Larson - 'Room'
    Julianne Moore - 'Still Alice'
    Cate Blanchett - 'Blue Jasmine'
    Jennifer Lawrence - 'Silver Linings Playbook'
    Viola Davis - 'The Help'
    Natalie Portman - 'Black Swan'

    And those are only within the last decade. They're all either biopics or actressing baity roles. I guess Close would be the closest comparison?

    I'd say Blanchett just takes SAG. Alternatively, Robbie comes through or Williams snatches it.

  8. #1488
    Senior Member Solarie's Avatar
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    Oh, and btw, I could see SAG doing precisely that aka giving EEAAO ensemble award while rewarding a different actress in the leading actress category.

  9. #1489
    clausura Hardys's Avatar
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    Not even Close is a good comparison. Yeoh winning at SAG would be absolutely unprecedented in that category.

  10. #1490
    Senior Member Iheartamyadams's Avatar
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    I agree with Solarie, the most likely scenario is that the film wins Ensemble and more traditional bait wins Actress. When people say that they’re kind to genre fare, that’s moreso in terms of noninations and the films winning Ensemble if they’re big enough. They have a very specific thing that they go for in Actress and it’s usually the most acting.

  11. #1491
    Senior Member boondoggle's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Solarie View Post
    Well, that's my prediction, you don't have to agree with it. Ensemble comparison doesn't work either, because we're not talking about the ensemble category. We're talking about Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Leading Role.

    I really struggle to see where Yeoh fits between those names.

    Jessica Chastain - 'The Eyes of Tammy Faye'
    Viola Davis - 'Ma Rainey's Black Bottom'
    Renée Zellweger - 'Judy'
    Glenn Close - 'The Wife'
    Frances McDormand - 'Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri'
    Emma Stone - 'La La Land'
    Brie Larson - 'Room'
    Julianne Moore - 'Still Alice'
    Cate Blanchett - 'Blue Jasmine'
    Jennifer Lawrence - 'Silver Linings Playbook'
    Viola Davis - 'The Help'
    Natalie Portman - 'Black Swan'

    And those are only within the last decade. They're all either biopics or actressing baity roles. I guess Close would be the closest comparison?

    I'd say Blanchett just takes SAG. Alternatively, Robbie comes through or Williams snatches it.
    OK then don't ask a question if your not open to having a discussion. I have pointed out there are trends within SAG that make it seem that Yeoh could do well with that voting body. If you think Blanchett has SAG on lock that's perfectly fine and something that IMO absolutely can happen but it's a long season and tons of stuff can happen between now and then.

  12. #1492
    Senior Member Chilombo's Avatar
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    If Yeoh loses the Globe she has no chance at SAG or anywhere else really. And yeah, I don't get the SAG talk either, I think Blanchett and Williams need to falter badly for that to happen. Like yes the film is popular and all but I don't think the material she was given is actual SAG bait, especially against the competition. And Black Panther is different, it's an ensemble award lol. ASIB and BR didn't have much attention as an ensemble either.

    I'm not even sure if the populist scenario works either, Mulligan's buzz was at an all time high during SAG voting and she still faltered because there was no precedent of that kind of role taking it. And this is likely an unpopular opinion but I think her role in PYW was a bit more "conventional" (or however else I can say it) than Yeoh's.

  13. #1493
    Senior Member Solarie's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by boondoggle View Post
    OK then don't ask a question if your not open to having a discussion. I have pointed out there are trends within SAG that make it seem that Yeoh could do well with that voting body. If you think Blanchett has SAG on lock that's perfectly fine and something that IMO absolutely can happen but it's a long season and tons of stuff can happen between now and then.
    Good luck with that, lmao.
    Also, I never said Blanchett is a lock.

  14. #1494
    Senior Member JFK's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by EOLB View Post
    I think the premiere is on Saturday, right?
    Yup! But I'll have to wait until Sunday morning to see it.

  15. #1495
    Senior Member JFK's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Iheartamyadams View Post
    I agree with Solarie, the most likely scenario is that the film wins Ensemble and more traditional bait wins Actress. When people say that they’re kind to genre fare, that’s moreso in terms of noninations and the films winning Ensemble if they’re big enough. They have a very specific thing that they go for in Actress and it’s usually the most acting.
    I also agree, but I don't see it winning ensemble.

  16. #1496
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    Quote Originally Posted by Chilombo View Post
    If Yeoh loses the Globe she has no chance at SAG or anywhere else really. And yeah, I don't get the SAG talk either, I think Blanchett and Williams need to falter badly for that to happen. Like yes the film is popular and all but I don't think the material she was given is actual SAG bait, especially against the competition. And Black Panther is different, it's an ensemble award lol. ASIB and BR didn't have much attention as an ensemble either.

    I'm not even sure if the populist scenario works either, Mulligan's buzz was at an all time high during SAG voting and she still faltered because there was no precedent of that kind of role taking it. And this is likely an unpopular opinion but I think her role in PYW was a bit more "conventional" (or however else I can say it) than Yeoh's.
    If she loses SAG she’s not winning. A Golden Globe comedy win means nothing.

  17. #1497
    Chile.. Bee's Avatar
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    I think Yeoh can be a winning factor at SAG to a certain extent, but someone like Deadwyler can be a major bust to her if Till is actually good. Her winning the Comedy Globe is not a huge get in this type of race.

  18. #1498
    Senior Member Nora's Avatar
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    Tang Wei - Decision to Leave (Winner)
    Naomie Ackie - I Wanna Dance with Somebody
    Cate Blanchett - TAR
    Olivia Colman - Empire of Light
    Michelle Williams - The Fabelmans

    Viola Davis - The Woman King
    Danielle Deadwyler - Till
    Margot Robbie - Babylon


  19. #1499
    Senior Member Chilombo's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by babz View Post
    If she loses SAG she’s not winning. A Golden Globe comedy win means nothing.
    Agreed, I was just pointing it out because of Vektor's post.

    Quote Originally Posted by Bee View Post
    I think Yeoh can be a winning factor at SAG to a certain extent, but someone like Deadwyler can be a major bust to her if Till is actually good. Her winning the Comedy Globe is not a huge get in this type of race.
    She will be in the conversation, especially if she ends up winning GG but ultimately I don't think she will win.

  20. #1500
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    If the SAG voting body wants to vote for Yeoh, they just will. Precedents, trends, statistics are only for us as predictors. That’s why Yeoh winning is being entertained. There’s truly no need to continuously over-complicate and obfuscate things. The idea that her performance isn’t showy exists only on here. And it’s very possible that Women Talking or The Fabelmans win Ensemble and they decide to go for Yeoh in Actress. As said before by EOLB, SAG is still overall kinder to populist genre and also not to mention kinder to veterans. Especially in looks to be a split race. And I’m just not seeing why Yeoh would lose the Globe, least of all to Robbie. It’s predicted that she wins that and I believe it’s going to stay that way. Yeoh is an international star and has more narrative. Narrative doesn’t always produce wins, but I think it’ll help here, especially since EEAAO has had more room to grow. The Globes could always Globe and fraud Babylon in Drama anyways.

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