When Spielberg only wins Screenplay at GG
Naomi Ackie - I Wanna Dance with Somebody
Cate Blanchett - Tár
Jessica Chastain - The Good Nurse
Olivia Colman - Empire of Light
Viola Davis - The Woman King
Danielle Deadwyler - Till
Ana de Armas - Blonde
Jennifer Lawrence - Causeway
Carey Mulligan - She Said
Florence Pugh - The Wonder
Margot Robbie - Babylon
Taylor Russell - Bones & All
Léa Seydoux - One Fine Morning
Tang Wei - Decision to Leave
Anya Taylor-Joy - The Menu
Emma Thompson - Good Luck to You, Leo Grande
Anamaria Vartolomei - Happening
Michelle Yeoh - Everything Everywhere All at Once
Other (Write-in your Predictions)
When Spielberg only wins Screenplay at GG
Considering Yeoh is considered (by many) likely to win the GG and could put up a fight at SAG who likes populist choices, I'm not sure how she's a "non-factor" whereas Deadwyler will put up a good fight (who I don't think will win the GG against Blanchett/Williams or SAG against Blanchett/even Yeoh)?Originally Posted by Rampling
Unless you're suggesting Deadwyler is winning industry awards up to the Oscar and then losing to Blanchett.
Maybe I'm dumb but I still can't understand why people keep entertaining Yeoh taking SAG. SAG is as basic as it gets and they will not give a win to genre performance. Imo, she's closer to being snubbed there than winning.
Out of the three major precursors, they've been the kindest to populist genre options at least in terms of nominations.
Blunt Force
It's a genre movie, a very populist one and yet Yeoh's performance is sort of muted, it's not bait they are going for.
I am not sure where you get that considering Black Panther won SAG Ensemble against much more typical Oscar bait like A Star is Born and Bohemian Rhapsody. SAG has also shown that they favor BIPOC performers and films so it makes sense that EEAAO that centers on the Asian American experience would do well. SAG also skews younger and more diverse than other awards bodies so I don't think "genre" is really as issue here. Plus EEAAO is very popular movie with your typical moviegoer so it's probably something that is going to appeal the typical SAG voter. FInally, SAG nominates films from genres that are typically ignored by AMPAS like broad comedies and romantic comedies so I don't think the humor or multiverse stuff is really all that alienating but actually an asset against more traditional films.
Well, that's my prediction, you don't have to agree with it. Ensemble comparison doesn't work either, because we're not talking about the ensemble category. We're talking about Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Leading Role.
I really struggle to see where Yeoh fits between those names.
Jessica Chastain - 'The Eyes of Tammy Faye'
Viola Davis - 'Ma Rainey's Black Bottom'
Renée Zellweger - 'Judy'
Glenn Close - 'The Wife'
Frances McDormand - 'Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri'
Emma Stone - 'La La Land'
Brie Larson - 'Room'
Julianne Moore - 'Still Alice'
Cate Blanchett - 'Blue Jasmine'
Jennifer Lawrence - 'Silver Linings Playbook'
Viola Davis - 'The Help'
Natalie Portman - 'Black Swan'
And those are only within the last decade. They're all either biopics or actressing baity roles. I guess Close would be the closest comparison?
I'd say Blanchett just takes SAG. Alternatively, Robbie comes through or Williams snatches it.
Oh, and btw, I could see SAG doing precisely that aka giving EEAAO ensemble award while rewarding a different actress in the leading actress category.
Not even Close is a good comparison. Yeoh winning at SAG would be absolutely unprecedented in that category.
I agree with Solarie, the most likely scenario is that the film wins Ensemble and more traditional bait wins Actress. When people say that they’re kind to genre fare, that’s moreso in terms of noninations and the films winning Ensemble if they’re big enough. They have a very specific thing that they go for in Actress and it’s usually the most acting.
OK then don't ask a question if your not open to having a discussion. I have pointed out there are trends within SAG that make it seem that Yeoh could do well with that voting body. If you think Blanchett has SAG on lock that's perfectly fine and something that IMO absolutely can happen but it's a long season and tons of stuff can happen between now and then.
If Yeoh loses the Globe she has no chance at SAG or anywhere else really. And yeah, I don't get the SAG talk either, I think Blanchett and Williams need to falter badly for that to happen. Like yes the film is popular and all but I don't think the material she was given is actual SAG bait, especially against the competition. And Black Panther is different, it's an ensemble award lol. ASIB and BR didn't have much attention as an ensemble either.
I'm not even sure if the populist scenario works either, Mulligan's buzz was at an all time high during SAG voting and she still faltered because there was no precedent of that kind of role taking it. And this is likely an unpopular opinion but I think her role in PYW was a bit more "conventional" (or however else I can say it) than Yeoh's.
Good luck with that, lmao.
Also, I never said Blanchett is a lock.
Yup! But I'll have to wait until Sunday morning to see it.
I also agree, but I don't see it winning ensemble.
If she loses SAG she’s not winning. A Golden Globe comedy win means nothing.
I think Yeoh can be a winning factor at SAG to a certain extent, but someone like Deadwyler can be a major bust to her if Till is actually good. Her winning the Comedy Globe is not a huge get in this type of race.
Tang Wei - Decision to Leave (Winner)
Naomie Ackie - I Wanna Dance with Somebody
Cate Blanchett - TAR
Olivia Colman - Empire of Light
Michelle Williams - The Fabelmans
Viola Davis - The Woman King
Danielle Deadwyler - Till
Margot Robbie - Babylon
Agreed, I was just pointing it out because of Vektor's post.
She will be in the conversation, especially if she ends up winning GG but ultimately I don't think she will win.
If the SAG voting body wants to vote for Yeoh, they just will. Precedents, trends, statistics are only for us as predictors. That’s why Yeoh winning is being entertained. There’s truly no need to continuously over-complicate and obfuscate things. The idea that her performance isn’t showy exists only on here. And it’s very possible that Women Talking or The Fabelmans win Ensemble and they decide to go for Yeoh in Actress. As said before by EOLB, SAG is still overall kinder to populist genre and also not to mention kinder to veterans. Especially in looks to be a split race. And I’m just not seeing why Yeoh would lose the Globe, least of all to Robbie. It’s predicted that she wins that and I believe it’s going to stay that way. Yeoh is an international star and has more narrative. Narrative doesn’t always produce wins, but I think it’ll help here, especially since EEAAO has had more room to grow. The Globes could always Globe and fraud Babylon in Drama anyways.
Posting Permissions
Reply With Quote
