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View Poll Results: Choose the 5 potential nominees

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  • Ben Aldridge - Spoiler Alert: The Hero Dies

    0 0%
  • Vincenzo Amato - L'Immensita

    0 0%
  • Lior Ashkenazi - Golda

    1 1.23%
  • Matthew Broderick - She Came to Me

    1 1.23%
  • Daniel Bruhl - All Quiet on the Western Front

    0 0%
  • Diego Calva - Babylon

    1 1.23%
  • Timothée Chalamet - Bones & All

    1 1.23%
  • Don Cheadle - White Noise

    6 7.41%
  • Russell Crowe - The Greatest Beer Run Ever

    0 0%
  • Willem Dafoe - Dead for a Dollar

    2 2.47%
  • Paul Dano - The Fabelmans

    55 67.90%
  • Paul Dano - The Spaceman of Bohemia

    0 0%
  • David Dawson - My Policeman

    0 0%
  • Robert De Niro - Amsterdam

    0 0%
  • Robert De Niro - Killers of the Flower Moon

    7 8.64%
  • Matthew Duckett - Lady Chatterley's Lover

    0 0%
  • Robert Duvall - The Pale Blue Eye

    0 0%
  • Ralph Fiennes - The Menu

    2 2.47%
  • Colin Firth - Empire of Light

    12 14.81%
  • Ben Foster - Emancipation

    0 0%
  • Brendan Gleeson - The Bashee of Inisherin

    21 25.93%
  • Tom Hanks - Elvis

    7 8.64%
  • Woody Harrelson - Triangle of Sadness

    3 3.70%
  • Ethan Hawke - Raymond & Ray

    1 1.23%
  • Bryan Tyree Henry - Causeway

    3 3.70%
  • Rami Heuberger - Golda

    0 0%
  • Ciaran Hinds - The Wonder

    0 0%
  • Judd Hirsch - The Fabelmans

    22 27.16%
  • Anthony Hopkins - Armageddon Time

    1 1.23%
  • Anthony Hopkins - The Son

    14 17.28%
  • Bill Irwin - Rustin

    0 0%
  • Barry Keoghan - The Banshee of Inisherin

    4 4.94%
  • Harry Lloyd - The Lost King

    0 0%
  • David Lynch - The Fabelmans

    4 4.94%
  • Zen McGrath - The Son

    44 54.32%
  • Ewan McGregor - Raymond & Ray

    0 0%
  • Harry Melling - The Pale Blue Eye

    0 0%
  • Jack O'Connell - Lady Chatterley's Lover

    0 0%
  • Brad Pitt - Babylon

    53 65.43%
  • Jesse Plemons - Killers of the Flower Moon

    5 6.17%
  • Ke Huy Quan - Everything Everywhere All at Once

    66 81.48%
  • Tahar Rahim - Napoleon

    0 0%
  • Tahar Rahim - She Came to Me

    0 0%
  • Seth Rogen - The Fabelmans

    5 6.17%
  • Thomas Sadowski - Fair Fight

    0 0%
  • Ashton Sanders - I Wanna Dance with Somebody

    5 6.17%
  • Matthias Schweighöfer - The Swimmers

    0 0%
  • Harry Styles - Don't Worry Darling

    0 0%
  • Ali Suliman - The Swimmers

    1 1.23%
  • Stanley Tucci - I Wanna Dance with Somebody

    2 2.47%
  • Glynn Turman - Rustin

    2 2.47%
  • John David Washington - Amsterdam

    0 0%
  • Ben Whishaw - Women Talking

    30 37.04%
  • Other (Write-in your prediction)

    4 4.94%
  • Tenoch Huerta - Black Panther: Wakanda Forever

    1 1.23%
Multiple Choice Poll.
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Results 201 to 219 of 219

Thread: Best Actor in a Supporting Role. August 2022

  1. #201
    Why is absence so heavy to bear? BillCipher's Avatar
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    1.Dano
    2.BTH
    3.Gleeson
    4.Quan
    5.Mcgrath
    "everything was fine yesterday"


  2. #202
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    This category is prime for a fall festival breakout. Other than the ones widely predicted like McGrath, Dano and Whishaw, there's also Cheadle, Ward/Jones/Firth, Gleeson, someone from Bros McCarthy-style, Brian Tyree Henry, Fiennes, Hirsch... I wonder who's gonna surprise us.

  3. #203
    Senior Member JFK's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Iheartamyadams View Post
    I’m assuming that there will be a festival breakout or two here, but I’d have an easier time imagining Pitt winning again if not.
    Sanders, Cheadle, Henry, Woodbine...

  4. #204
    Senior Member JFK's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by GeorgeEastman View Post
    If McGrath really has the best role in The Son, it feels plausible he could win.
    The confidence shown for this no name 20 something in this group is astounding to me. When was the last time the Academy gave supporting actor to someone this young? Answer: Timothy Hutton for Ordinary People (1981), but these are different times. I do not see it.

  5. #205
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    Quote Originally Posted by JFK View Post
    The confidence shown for this no name 20 something in this group is astounding to me. When was the last time the Academy gave supporting actor to someone this young? Answer: Timothy Hutton for Ordinary People (1981), but these are different times. I do not see it.
    Agree. Tbh, I wouldn't be shocked if he ends up having hands-down the most passion from anyone in The Son (he has easily the best role and draws the biggest emotional reaction imo) but doesn't stand much of a chance at winning regardless. If he wasn't so young it'd be a completely different story tho.

  6. #206
    Senior Member DameOctaviaSpencer's Avatar
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    I also wouldn't bet my life of his nomination just yet. I currently have him, because I think the category is rather up in the air, but other than Lucas Hedges, no actor in such young age happened here since 2000, and they've moved for a veteran the first moment they could to deny Kodi who would have been an acceptable winner at the age of 25 last time. We know they don't go for younger actors very often, from 17 to 22 years old, the nominees in this category were among the Top 5 youngest nominees ever. So even if Zen McGrath has a strong role/performance/film, statistically, he has almost no chance at winning, with Hutton being the only exception in 94 years.


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  7. #207
    Senior Member bluerose's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by DameOctaviaSpencer View Post
    I also wouldn't bet my life of his nomination just yet. I currently have him, because I think the category is rather up in the air, but other than Lucas Hedges, no actor in such young age happened here since 2000, and they've moved for a veteran the first moment they could to deny Kodi who would have been an acceptable winner at the age of 25 last time. We know they don't go for younger actors very often, from 17 to 22 years old, the nominees in this category were among the Top 5 youngest nominees ever. So even if Zen McGrath has a strong role/performance/film, statistically, he has almost no chance at winning, with Hutton being the only exception in 94 years.
    This

    I have him down as a solid lock for a nomination at this point but a win would be unheard of. Of course things do happen that are rare but when there will be 4 other older vets there, they are going to award one of them for a win imo. Breakout male stars basically never win. I mean the stats are insane, it just doesn’t happen especially in our current generation.

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  8. #208
    Senior Member JotB's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by fidelicate View Post
    This category is prime for a fall festival breakout. Other than the ones widely predicted like McGrath, Dano and Whishaw, there's also Cheadle, Ward/Jones/Firth, Gleeson, someone from Bros McCarthy-style, Brian Tyree Henry, Fiennes, Hirsch... I wonder who's gonna surprise us.

  9. #209
    Fifteen is my limit on schnitzengruben The Dark Poet's Avatar
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    Woodbine is a very traditional Supporting Actor winner in terms of the role he's playing, and he's checking all the figures for such a win: he's playing an antagonistic character that takes on a warped mentorship position with the young hero, and judging from the plot, a lot of it is going to hinge on the interactions between him and Pope. He is also a journeyman character actor that has worked with so many people in the industry and seems to be pretty well-liked by his collaborators, over the course of his 30+ year career. Obviously, we need to wait to see his performance, but it seems absolutely plausible that he could be someone to watch.

    Pitt just doesn't strike me as a potential winner. It also would seem odd to me that a major actor like him would have two Supporting Oscars. Obviously I don't want to undervalue the importance of an Oscar in any category, but what is the precedent for one of the biggest stars in history to have two Oscars in the supporting categories? Looking at people who won 2 or more acting Oscars in the supporting categories, its clear that its not something that happens often for major actors - the closest comparison is Melvyn Douglas, but he won later in his career when he was taking on more character-based work. You can make a case for Anthony Quinn and Jason Robards, but once again, these don't quite fit since they were often seen as very dedicated character actors. It just doesn't mesh with me - some of the arguments here are good, but it's not making a lot of plausible sense IMHO.

    This could also be a solid place to reward the Best Picture winner, especially if the other acting categories don't have a major BP contender as their frontrunner - Quan, Jones/Firth or my personal favourite choice, David Lynch (then again you could say Pitt fits the bill too, but when people are predicting Margot Robbie and Jean Smart to win too, do we really think the film can earn 3 acting wins?)

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  10. #210
    The Naked Bastard tnb's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by The Dark Poet View Post
    Pitt just doesn't strike me as a potential winner. It also would seem odd to me that a major actor like him would have two Supporting Oscars. Obviously I don't want to undervalue the importance of an Oscar in any category, but what is the precedent for one of the biggest stars in history to have two Oscars in the supporting categories? Looking at people who won 2 or more acting Oscars in the supporting categories, its clear that its not something that happens often for major actors - the closest comparison is Melvyn Douglas, but he won later in his career when he was taking on more character-based work. You can make a case for Anthony Quinn and Jason Robards, but once again, these don't quite fit since they were often seen as very dedicated character actors. It just doesn't mesh with me - some of the arguments here are good, but it's not making a lot of plausible sense IMHO.
    I's day Michael Caine is the most fitting comparison. He was one of the leading british lad from the 60s-80s. Four best actor noms speak for themselves as well.

  11. #211
    Fifteen is my limit on schnitzengruben The Dark Poet's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by tnb View Post
    I's day Michael Caine is the most fitting comparison. He was one of the leading british lad from the 60s-80s. Four best actor noms speak for themselves as well.
    Oh yes Caine is a good call too - but even then, his two wins came later and after which he had moved into more niche roles as a character actor. Pitt is still very much an it-boy at his movie star peak

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  12. #212
    Senior Member JFK's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by JotB View Post
    I responded to this earlier..

  13. #213
    Senior Member Matt24's Avatar
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    I don't think Pitt's PR problems are going to prevent him from getting the nomination whatsoever and believe that's going to entirely end up being an AW/Film Twitter echo chamber thing. The role is too juicy (and borderline co-lead) and the word is he delivers so they won't go out of their way to snub him for a film they're going to throw double digit nominations at.

    But I do think winning is another story, especially when he's going to be up against the loveable Quan. Going to be hard for him to overcome their dueling narratives (loveable comeback vs problematic A-list leading man who just won) even if he has the more acclaimed performance/more conventionally winning role. I still think he stands the best shot at beating Quan despite all of this, though.

  14. #214
    Senior Member variousstorms's Avatar
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    Brad should go lead anyway

  15. #215
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    Quote Originally Posted by variousstorms View Post
    Brad should go lead anyway
    But that would be considered category fraud since he is not really the lead. Diego Calva is playing the main protagonist.

  16. #216
    Senior Member Hoster1's Avatar
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    Pre-fests:

    Judd Hirsch - The Fabelmans (Universal)
    Zen McGrath - The Son (SPC)
    Brad Pitt - Babylon (Paramount)
    Ke Huy Quan - Everything Everywhere All at Once (A24)
    Michael Ward - Empire of Light (Searchlight - lead?)

    Alt: Don Cheadle - White Noise (Netflix)
    Last edited by Hoster1; 08-30-2022 at 08:31 AM.

  17. #217
    Senior Member variousstorms's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Cookie_Monster View Post
    But that would be considered category fraud since he is not really the lead. Diego Calva is playing the main protagonist.
    I don't think he's the main protagonist honestly from the script, the movie felt more like it had three co-leads. ...with Calva's story being kind of interwoven between the two other charachters.

  18. #218
    Senior Member Nora's Avatar
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    Mark Rylance - Bones & All (Winner)
    Tom Hanks - Elvis
    Woody Harrelson - Triangle of Sadness
    Judd Hirsch - The Fabelmans
    Anthony Hopkins - The Son

    Adrien Brody .- Blonde
    Russell Crowe - The Greatest Beer Run Ever
    Paul Dano - The Fabelmans
    Ralph Fiennes - The Menu
    Brad Pitt - Babylon
    Last edited by Nora; 08-30-2022 at 03:04 PM.


  19. #219
    Senior Member Nora's Avatar
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    I'm so high on Rylance which means I feel him very much... I hope he's gonna make it


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