Best Actor in a Supporting Role. August 2022

[BillCipher]

1.Dano
2.BTH
3.Gleeson
4.Quan
5.Mcgrath

[fidelicate]

This category is prime for a fall festival breakout. Other than the ones widely predicted like McGrath, Dano and Whishaw, there's also Cheadle, Ward/Jones/Firth, Gleeson, someone from Bros McCarthy-style, Brian Tyree Henry, Fiennes, Hirsch... I wonder who's gonna surprise us.

[JFK]

I’m assuming that there will be a festival breakout or two here, but I’d have an easier time imagining Pitt winning again if not.

Sanders, Cheadle, Henry, Woodbine...

[JFK]

If McGrath really has the best role in The Son, it feels plausible he could win.

The confidence shown for this no name 20 something in this group is astounding to me. When was the last time the Academy gave supporting actor to someone this young? Answer: Timothy Hutton for Ordinary People (1981), but these are different times. I do not see it.

[Whirlwind]

The confidence shown for this no name 20 something in this group is astounding to me. When was the last time the Academy gave supporting actor to someone this young? Answer: Timothy Hutton for Ordinary People (1981), but these are different times. I do not see it.

Agree. Tbh, I wouldn't be shocked if he ends up having hands-down the most passion from anyone in The Son (he has easily the best role and draws the biggest emotional reaction imo) but doesn't stand much of a chance at winning regardless. If he wasn't so young it'd be a completely different story tho.

[DameOctaviaSpencer]

I also wouldn't bet my life of his nomination just yet. I currently have him, because I think the category is rather up in the air, but other than Lucas Hedges, no actor in such young age happened here since 2000, and they've moved for a veteran the first moment they could to deny Kodi who would have been an acceptable winner at the age of 25 last time. We know they don't go for younger actors very often, from 17 to 22 years old, the nominees in this category were among the Top 5 youngest nominees ever. So even if Zen McGrath has a strong role/performance/film, statistically, he has almost no chance at winning, with Hutton being the only exception in 94 years.

[bluerose]

I also wouldn't bet my life of his nomination just yet. I currently have him, because I think the category is rather up in the air, but other than Lucas Hedges, no actor in such young age happened here since 2000, and they've moved for a veteran the first moment they could to deny Kodi who would have been an acceptable winner at the age of 25 last time. We know they don't go for younger actors very often, from 17 to 22 years old, the nominees in this category were among the Top 5 youngest nominees ever. So even if Zen McGrath has a strong role/performance/film, statistically, he has almost no chance at winning, with Hutton being the only exception in 94 years.

This

I have him down as a solid lock for a nomination at this point but a win would be unheard of. Of course things do happen that are rare but when there will be 4 other older vets there, they are going to award one of them for a win imo. Breakout male stars basically never win. I mean the stats are insane, it just doesn’t happen especially in our current generation.

[JotB]

This category is prime for a fall festival breakout. Other than the ones widely predicted like McGrath, Dano and Whishaw, there's also Cheadle, Ward/Jones/Firth, Gleeson, someone from Bros McCarthy-style, Brian Tyree Henry, Fiennes, Hirsch... I wonder who's gonna surprise us.

[The Dark Poet]

Woodbine is a very traditional Supporting Actor winner in terms of the role he's playing, and he's checking all the figures for such a win: he's playing an antagonistic character that takes on a warped mentorship position with the young hero, and judging from the plot, a lot of it is going to hinge on the interactions between him and Pope. He is also a journeyman character actor that has worked with so many people in the industry and seems to be pretty well-liked by his collaborators, over the course of his 30+ year career. Obviously, we need to wait to see his performance, but it seems absolutely plausible that he could be someone to watch.

Pitt just doesn't strike me as a potential winner. It also would seem odd to me that a major actor like him would have two Supporting Oscars. Obviously I don't want to undervalue the importance of an Oscar in any category, but what is the precedent for one of the biggest stars in history to have two Oscars in the supporting categories? Looking at people who won 2 or more acting Oscars in the supporting categories, its clear that its not something that happens often for major actors - the closest comparison is Melvyn Douglas, but he won later in his career when he was taking on more character-based work. You can make a case for Anthony Quinn and Jason Robards, but once again, these don't quite fit since they were often seen as very dedicated character actors. It just doesn't mesh with me - some of the arguments here are good, but it's not making a lot of plausible sense IMHO.

This could also be a solid place to reward the Best Picture winner, especially if the other acting categories don't have a major BP contender as their frontrunner - Quan, Jones/Firth or my personal favourite choice, David Lynch (then again you could say Pitt fits the bill too, but when people are predicting Margot Robbie and Jean Smart to win too, do we really think the film can earn 3 acting wins?)

[tnb]

Pitt just doesn't strike me as a potential winner. It also would seem odd to me that a major actor like him would have two Supporting Oscars. Obviously I don't want to undervalue the importance of an Oscar in any category, but what is the precedent for one of the biggest stars in history to have two Oscars in the supporting categories? Looking at people who won 2 or more acting Oscars in the supporting categories, its clear that its not something that happens often for major actors - the closest comparison is Melvyn Douglas, but he won later in his career when he was taking on more character-based work. You can make a case for Anthony Quinn and Jason Robards, but once again, these don't quite fit since they were often seen as very dedicated character actors. It just doesn't mesh with me - some of the arguments here are good, but it's not making a lot of plausible sense IMHO.

I's day Michael Caine is the most fitting comparison. He was one of the leading british lad from the 60s-80s. Four best actor noms speak for themselves as well.

[The Dark Poet]

I's day Michael Caine is the most fitting comparison. He was one of the leading british lad from the 60s-80s. Four best actor noms speak for themselves as well.

Oh yes Caine is a good call too - but even then, his two wins came later and after which he had moved into more niche roles as a character actor. Pitt is still very much an it-boy at his movie star peak

[JFK]

I responded to this earlier..

[Matt24]

I don't think Pitt's PR problems are going to prevent him from getting the nomination whatsoever and believe that's going to entirely end up being an AW/Film Twitter echo chamber thing. The role is too juicy (and borderline co-lead) and the word is he delivers so they won't go out of their way to snub him for a film they're going to throw double digit nominations at.

But I do think winning is another story, especially when he's going to be up against the loveable Quan. Going to be hard for him to overcome their dueling narratives (loveable comeback vs problematic A-list leading man who just won) even if he has the more acclaimed performance/more conventionally winning role. I still think he stands the best shot at beating Quan despite all of this, though.

[variousstorms]

Brad should go lead anyway

[Cookie_Monster]

Brad should go lead anyway

But that would be considered category fraud since he is not really the lead. Diego Calva is playing the main protagonist.

[Hoster1]

Pre-fests:

Judd Hirsch - The Fabelmans (Universal)
Zen McGrath - The Son (SPC)
Brad Pitt - Babylon (Paramount)
Ke Huy Quan - Everything Everywhere All at Once (A24)
Michael Ward - Empire of Light (Searchlight - lead?)

Alt: Don Cheadle - White Noise (Netflix)

[variousstorms]

But that would be considered category fraud since he is not really the lead. Diego Calva is playing the main protagonist.

I don't think he's the main protagonist honestly from the script, the movie felt more like it had three co-leads. ...with Calva's story being kind of interwoven between the two other charachters.

[Nora]

Mark Rylance - Bones & All (Winner)
Tom Hanks - Elvis
Woody Harrelson - Triangle of Sadness
Judd Hirsch - The Fabelmans
Anthony Hopkins - The Son

Adrien Brody .- Blonde
Russell Crowe - The Greatest Beer Run Ever
Paul Dano - The Fabelmans
Ralph Fiennes - The Menu
Brad Pitt - Babylon

[Nora]

I'm so high on Rylance which means I feel him very much... I hope he's gonna make it