SAG 2023 predictions

[Wheeljack]

Banshees will not get nominated for SAG ensemble. It’s not a hot movie audience wise and the cast outside of Farrell isn’t mega well known for it to earn an ensemble nom if it’s already getting 3 noms.

[divine]

SAG nom com can be ruthless sometimes, we’ve seen stranger things before *cough Ellis last year cough* so imma keep it at 3. the film isn’t audience friendly outside of the people who can relate to its atmosphere, and it isn’t huge huge either so…

[Bondsocial]

Yeah, only 4 “C” CinemaScore movies got SAG ensemble nods.

SAG ensemble x CinemaScore

1996: Marvin’s Room - C+
1997: Boogie Nights - C
1999: Magnolia - C-
2003: Adaptation. - C

[Kostas]

Yeah, only 4 “C” CinemaScore movies got SAG ensemble nods.

SAG ensemble x CinemaScore

1996: Marvin’s Room - C+
1997: Boogie Nights - C
1999: Magnolia - C-
2003: Adaptation. - C

The last three were acclaimed films to overcome that. Marvin's Room is the odd one but it wasn't relived and has a great casting. Yeah, Babylon will really need to bring the luck of the movie gods here. Even a Robbie sole nom is far from given.

Also these films got multiple individual noms.

[Jman23]

I’m confident that De Armas is in here

[EOLB]

I’m confident that De Armas is in here

I'll call you daddy forever if she happens here.

[electric_storm]

For what it's worth I don't think a film has gotten four individual SAG nominations and not been nominated in Ensemble.

No there hasn’t. Not sure why everyone keeps disregarding Banshees despite this, that it’s Searchlight’s #1 and top 3 in the race. If you’re predicting a snub here I really think you need to predict a Keoghan snub too.

[Vektor]

Two movies dominating the nominations here with Cast + 4 individual noms each would be unprecedented, right? I mean, SAG only has 25 spots to give out and they would give 10 of those to two movies if Everything Everywhere and Banshees perform as they should. A very unique year for the guild if it happens. 60% of the supporting noms going to only two movies is almost Emmy-esque.

[Jman23]

No there hasn’t. Not sure why everyone keeps disregarding Banshees despite this, that it’s Searchlight’s #1 and top 3 in the race. If you’re predicting a snub here I really think you need to predict a Keoghan snub too.

He will be snubbed

[Kostas]

Two movies dominating the nominations here with Cast + 4 individual noms each would be unprecedented, right? I mean, SAG only has 25 spots to give out and they would give 10 of those to two movies if Everything Everywhere and Banshees perform as they should. A very unique year for the guild if it happens. 60% of the supporting noms going to only two movies is almost Emmy-esque.

If you predict Keoghan snub, then you may consider a potential left Best Supporting Actor lineup with 2 lone film acting (at least) - if you go for Eddie Redmayne and Bryan Tyree Henry. Otherwise, you can go for a left name.

[Jman23]

If you predict Keoghan snub, then you may consider a potential left Best Supporting Actor lineup with 2 lone film acting (at least) - if you go for Eddie Redmayne and Bryan Tyree Henry. Otherwise, you can go for a left name.

Eddie Redmayne is kinda a lock there tbh. That Globe nom basically certifies he will be at SAG. Bryan could get in too.

[angelofharlem]

I’m confident that De Armas is in here

I know. A sure-fire nomination.

[filibanfi]

Not sure what to do with Danielle Deadwyler here. What's the stat on a relative newcomer with little-to-no name recognition making it at SAG after being snubbed by the Globes with an underseen movie that isn't about some universally known icon? If we are to attribute her missing the Globes to visibility issues, and that's probably where it's at considering how baity the performance is, then I'm not sure she's going to have it any easier here.

[Kostas]

Not sure what to do with Danielle Deadwyler here. What's the stat on a relative newcomer with little-to-no name recognition making it at SAG after being snubbed by the Globes with an underseen movie that isn't about some universally known icon? If we are to attribute her missing the Globes to visibility issues, and that's probably where it's at considering how baity the performance is, then I'm not sure she's going to have it any easier here.

Catalina Sandino Moreno in 2004. And if you include Best Actor Demian Bichir in 2011.

[Roberto]

Yeah I'm toying with a possible Deadwyler snub too, but I'm not even sure De Armas would be taking her place, while I could see them going with Jennifer Lawrence.

[Bee]

Yeah I'm toying with a possible Deadwyler snub too, but I'm not even sure De Armas would be taking her place, while I could see them going with Jennifer Lawrence.

JLaw doesnt even have more traction than her co-star for a tiny movie. Also, why do some of you keep insisting that a SAG nom happens precisely because of a Globe nom? Kristen Stewart made it everywhere and still wound up missing SAG because they did not like Spencer

[electric_storm]

Deadwyler didn't miss Globe because of visibility issues, she missed because members weren't into the film.

[alittle003]

Yeah, I’m pretty sure it’s written or tweeted somewhere that the HFPA did not care for Till. Not expecting Deadwyler to have that same problem at SAG with the industry acclaim she has and the baity performance she gives in a film that is rather well-liked by those who’ve seen it.

[J-bravo]

Ensemble

1. EEAAO
2. The Fabelmans
3. The Woman King
4. Top Gun Maverick
5. Glass Onion

Women Talking just seems like a No1curr

Actor

1. Butler, Elvis
2. Fraser, The Whale
3. Farrell, Banshees of Inisherin
4. Nighy, Living
5. Cruise, Maverick

Not confident about Cruise. Feels like a baity performance could happen instead. Will try to watch The Inspection because I have feeling Pope might get in instead. Not ruling out Smith.

Actress

1. Yeoh, EEAAO
2. Williams, The Fabelmans
3. Blanchett, TAR
4. Davis, The Woman King
5. Deadwyler, Till

Not confident about Deadwyler. Could be Robbie instead despite the RT audience score for Babylon and the movie bombing at the box office

Supporting Actor

1. Quan, EEAAO
2. Gleeson, Banshees of Inisherin
3. Dano, The Fabelmans
4. Redmayne, The Good Nurse
5. Henry, Causeway

Really don’t think Keoghan is getting a nom.

Supporting Actress

1. Condon, Banshees of Inisherin
2. Curtis, EEAAO
3. Bassett, Wakanda Forever
4. Monae, Glass Onion
5. Chau, The Whale

Not confident about Chau. Could be Hsu instead.

[EOLB]

Yeah, I’m pretty sure it’s written or tweeted somewhere that the HFPA did not care for Till. Not expecting Deadwyler to have that same problem at SAG with the industry acclaim she has and the baity performance she gives in a film that is rather well-liked by those who’ve seen it.

It was what Cedric or Cricket (I can't remember which one) said about the FIPRESCI members.