Best Picture. June 2022

[JotB]

If anything, Top Gun solidifies the ground for Cruise winning an acting Oscar soon, as it shows that audiences are still very much hyped and he’s one of the last Great Movie Stars not to have one. It helps that he had a decent Oscar haul in the past.

Yeah, if there’s a next time that he gets nominated, he’s winning.

Considering he almost took the Cliff Booth part in OUATIH, he’ll probably only work with the marquee directors/titans of the industry (except Spielberg) outside of his own projects.

[babz]

Tom just needs the right role and he will definitely win. But he’s been entrenched in these action blockbusters for so long.

[Winters]

Is it too much of a pipe dream to consider RRR here, even as a distant possibility? Word-of-mouth can be pretty strong.

[Ms. M]

Is it too much of a pipe dream to consider RRR here, even as a distant possibility? Word-of-mouth can be pretty strong.

I don’t see RRR in the Picture race, as fun as that would be. As it is there’s already at least three action-oriented films (EEAAO, Avatar 2, and Top Gun: Maverick) that could get in.

But India could submit it for International Feature. It’s a long shot but it likely has a better chance than any other Indian film this year.

[kitkat]

RRR seems more like a Raid 2 type thing. Buzzy and great WOM but not really a thing for awards.

[Heroesrule99]

Is it too much of a pipe dream to consider RRR here, even as a distant possibility? Word-of-mouth can be pretty strong.

EEAAO has all the cool pick energy already

[Cinesnatch]

Babylon (39)
The Fablemans (39)
Killer of the Flower Moon (36)
Everything Everywhere All at Once (34)

Everything Everywhere should be above Killer, even by a hair. Killer is the only one out of the four that I can seriously see missing as much as getting in atp, but I would still group all four of these together.

Women Talking (26)
Empire of Light (23)
Avatar 2 (22)
The Son (21)

I get the Empire predictions, but I just see the likelihood of failure so much more possible. It's not like Mendes has become an AMPAS staple again. Avatar/The Son seem like they have more going for them. Zeller could be a fluke (perhaps like how Mendes kind of faded out after a huge splash back in 1999). Avatar 2 could very easily capture its previous success. Stranger things have happened. Women Talking seems to have experienced a resurgence after last month I'm imagining in part because of the release date announcement. It's probably the one I feel best about right now out of the four.

Bardo (15)
She Said (13)
Top Gun: Maverick (12)

Bardo seems like a solid prediction based on the director's track record. Even if this film is more personal and less starry. She Said just doesn't strike me as something that will become anything, especially with Women Talking in the mix. I don't know how to read Top Gun's chances. I have a hard time imagining it in any above-the-line categories.

Rustin (10)
TAR (10)
Poor Things (9)
The Banshee of Inisherin (8)
Decision to Leave (8)
The Whale (8)

I lean 'no" on Rustin. Nobody on board instills me with much confidence, especially Dustin Lance Black. TAR has a female protagonist, which we know the AMPAS isn't always keen on. Even Blue Jasmin missed in BP. Poor Things has a female protagonist as well, but the director is also more of a "bro-friendly," which could balance that out. I think The Whale may compete in acting, but not sure what else. The Banshee of Inisherin could compete in acting and screenplay, which instills me with the most confidence atp. I see people hanging onto Decision to Leave post-Cannes, which is interesting. I'm not sure what to make of that. The critics loved it. 88 on MC.

Triangle of Sadness (6)
White Noise (6)
Armageddon Time (5)
Elvis (5)

Elvis could be a Bohemian Rhapsody or a Rocketman. So could I Wanna Dance with Somebody. I'm not sure. Both films were crap. I can't really tell them apart. Was it because Mercury was dead? This all really hinges on Austin Butler. If The Academy goes for him, then a lot of other nominations will fall into place, I think, just as it did with Rhapsody. Critics weren't as big on Armageddon Time (MC 74) as they were Decision to Leave. Even less so on Triangle of Sadness (MC 66). I have been pretty cool on White Noise. Baumbach could be operating outside his wheelhouse with the subject material.

I see people have let go of Thirteen Lives! (finally)

My Ranking:

1. Babylon
2. Everything Everywhere All at Once
3. The Fablemans

4. Killers of the Flower Moon

5. The Son
6. Women Talking
7. Avatar 2

8. Bardo
9. The Greatest Beer Run Ever (I'll wait until TIFF to not predict this if that's where things are headed)

10. Elvis
10. I Wanna Dance with Somebody (No idea why I should predict this any differently than Elvis, though Elvis looks like it'll be a huge commercial hit and compete in the technical categories at a minimum).

12. The Banshee of Inisherin (I can't rule out Fox Searchlight, I just don't know what will be their main contender this season; though I think this one has the most going for it)
13. Poor Things
14. Decision to Leave
15. Top Gun: Maverick

16. Empire of Light
17. The Whale
18. Rustin
19. TAR
20. Triangle of Sadness
21. She Said
22. White Noise
23. Armageddon Time

My predictions last month.

[Nora]

I'm not high on White Noise & Empire of Light either. I don't feel I Wanna Dance with Somebody like at all. Maybe Elvis...
I feel Rustin very much.

[tyjagi]

Ma Rainey underperformed greatly and Dustin Lance Black hasn't written a well-received film since 2008. Those two joining forces would lead to a Best Picture nominee? Rustin isn't even a top tier priority for Netflix.

It's an Actor play only

[Nora]

Not being top tier can change. I agree about Rustin being mostly an actor play, but I feel it will pass that somehow...
My gut feelings for now...

[Jonathan]

I could definitely see critics going to bat for RRR and trying to make it one of their causes for the year, but I don't know if its US distributor would have the resources or even interest to campaign for it at any of the major categories. International Feature is certainly possible if India submits it, although I feel like it's been a while since such an obviously commercial movie broke through in that category.

I'm pulling for an Original Song nom for "Naatu Naatu" though

[walkabout]

Without having seen the film yet, Triangle of Sadness gettin BP, Director, Original Screenplay and Supp. Actor (Harrelson) nods seem very logical to me. The film is a big crowdpleaser, obviously. And I can see it win those last two nods, honestly.

[tulibudibouchu]

lol from the randon clips I've seen from RRR, I've always thought its praise are... sarcastic lol or like, so ridiculous it's good kind of praise, something I definitely don't see the critics getting behind it. But stranger things have happened, I guess.

Anyway, I agree. Triangle of Sadness could definitely break out. It got prestige, it's apparently a crowd-pleaser. It also has international appeal while being in English, which is a win-win situation for it.

[Cepho]

lol from the randon clips I've seen from RRR, I've always thought its praise are... sarcastic lol or like, so ridiculous it's good kind of praise, something I definitely don't see the critics getting behind it. But stranger things have happened, I guess.

Anyway, I agree. Triangle of Sadness could definitely break out. It got prestige, it's apparently a crowd-pleaser. It also has international appeal while being in English, which is a win-win situation for it.

I mean, RRR has a 85 on Metacritic.

[Bird]

Having seen RRR, it won't get into Picture or International Feature. It's very Bollywood, but doesn't really stand out from other over-the-top Bollywood Blockbusters that have come out recently (I've seen quite a few Bollywood films as my roommate is from India).

I get Adam McKay Film vibes from Triangle of Sadness. Satire of Rich People that divided Critics? Sounds right up the Academy's Alley. I'm thinking Screenplay at the very least, but I'm also predicting Picture, Director, and one acting nomination (Either Woody Harrelson, the most well known name in the film for Americans, or Dolly de Leon, the lesser known stand out according to critics).

[Cepho]

Having seen RRR, it won't get into Picture or International Feature. It's very Bollywood, but doesn't really stand out from other over-the-top Bollywood Blockbusters that have come out recently (I've seen quite a few Bollywood films as my roommate is from India).

I get Adam McKay Film vibes from Triangle of Sadness. Satire of Rich People that divided Critics? Sounds right up the Academy's Alley. I'm thinking Screenplay at the very least, but I'm also predicting Picture, Director, and one acting nomination (Either Woody Harrelson, the most well known name in the film for Americans, or Dolly de Leon, the lesser known stand out according to critics).

RRR is actually a Tollywood film, meaning it's from the Telugu-language film industry.

[Ms. M]

RRR is actually a Tollywood film, meaning it's from the Telugu-language film industry.

There’s a truly staggering number of global film industries, many of which will never get near the Oscars, that use +ollywood or +wood as their suffix: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List...mes#South_Asia

[mysteryfan04]

Assuming Scorsese, Lanthimos, and Wes are 2023, for now.

1. The Son
2. Babylon
3. Bardo
4. The Fabelmans
5. Women Talking
6. Tar
7. The Banshees of Inisherin
8. She Said
9. Empire of Light
10. Everything Everywhere All at Once

[Nora]

15 contenders:

• Decision to Leave (Best Picture Winner)
• Babylon
• Amsterdam
• The Fabelmans
• The Greatest Beer Run Ever
• Killers of the Flower Moon
• Next Goal Wins
• Poor Things
• Rustin
•The Son

• Avatar 2
• Empire of Light
• The Lost King
• TAR
• White Noise

• Decision to Leave (Best Picture Winner)
• Babylon
• Amsterdam
• The Fabelmans
• The Greatest Beer Run Ever
• Killers of the Flower Moon
• Next Goal Wins
• Poor Things
• Rustin
•The Son

• Armageddon Time
• Avatar 2
• Bones & All
• Broker
• Empire of Light
• The Lost King
• The Menu
• Shirley
• TAR
• Triangle of Sadness
• White Noise

[kitkat]

15 contenders:

• Decision to Leave (Best Picture Winner)
• Babylon
• Amsterdam
• The Fabelmans
• The Greatest Beer Run Ever
• Killers of the Flower Moon
• Next Goal Wins
• Poor Things
• Rustin
•The Son

• Avatar 2
• Empire of Light
• The Lost King
• TAR
• White Noise

• Decision to Leave (Best Picture Winner)
• Babylon
• Amsterdam
• The Fabelmans
• The Greatest Beer Run Ever
• Killers of the Flower Moon
• Next Goal Wins
• Poor Things
• Rustin
•The Son

• Armageddon Time
• Avatar 2
• Bones & All
• Broker
• Empire of Light
• The Lost King
• The Menu
• Shirley
• TAR
• Triangle of Sadness
• White Noise

I love your optimism for Decision to Leave lol. I just don’t see it but I would love if you’re right.