Best Actor in a Leading Role. May 2022

[Kostas]

Not at all understanding why critics wouldn’t go for the film or at least Song.

If being honests, Antonio Banderas is the first leading actor to reach the trifecta and that happened till 2019. Male lead actors in foreign language films tend to struggle at critics even in weak years (Example in 2015 and 2016, which critics prefered voting for Tom Hardy, Adam Driver and Michael B. Jordan over Geza Rohrig and Abraham Attah).

Song will need the campaign of Neon (And avoiding the mistakes from "The Worst Person in the World", especially if a new nationalist comittee picks another South Korean film because Broker's director is Japanese). But then, Neon also has "Triangle of Sadness".

[kitkat]

Plus even Nishijima winning one of the trifecta and being in a BP/BD nominated film didn't really come close? I don't really see Song having a stronger critical performance.

[tyjagi]

I guess Cruz got in for a film that also wasn't submitted but she's a Hollywood star. IA I don't see it unless the film gets enormously more raved at the fall circuit.

She's a Hollywood star with a big pundit push and won LAFCA and NSFC. (Probably was NY runnerup, too). She finished the year top 6 overall in regionals.

Broker is currently 74 MC and 7.20 average on RT. I don't see critics or regionals touching this performance. He also won LA in 2019 so it'd be surprising if he won that again.

Cannes Actor + Oscar since 09:
Waltz, Basterds (BP)- won
Bardem, Biutiful- BAFTA
Dujardin, The Artist (BP)- won
Dern, Nebraska (BP)- Globe + LA + NBR + SAG
Banderas, Pain and Glory- Globe+ LA + NSFC + NYFCC

Cannes Actress+Oscar since 09
Mara, Carol (Supporting)- Globe + SAG + BAFTA

[tyjagi]

Not at all understanding why critics wouldn’t go for the film or at least Song.

You don't understand why? Koreeda has only won 1 trifecta award ever... LAFCA International Film in 2018 which TIED with Burning. It placed 3rd at NSFC. Broker already has a lower MC than The Truth (76), Shoplifters (93), After the Storm (84), Our Little Sister (75), I Wish (80), Still Walking (89), Nobody Knows (88), After Life (91), Maborosi (92). The 74 is only currently better than Our Little Sister(73) and Third Murder (68). Where's the narrative and drive to reward this film?

Song just won LAFCA so he's at a disadvantage there. Banderas was NYFCC's first foreign actor winner since, what? Ever? Two strikes already.

[klariso]

Oh hey you're back @tyjagi!

[Kostas]

The list of Leading performances nominated for a full/mostly full foreign language performance

Best Actor:

1962 - Marcello Mastroianni
1976 - Giancarlo Giannini
1977 - Marcello Mastroianni
1987 - Marcello Mastroianni
1990 - Gerard Depardieu
1995 - Massimo Troisi
1998 - Roberto Benigni
2010 - Javier Bardem
2019 - Antonio Banderas
2020 - Steven Yeun

10 nominees. Almost a third from the same man (Marcello Mastroianni)

Best Actress:

1960 - Melina Mercouri
1961 - Sophia Loren
1964 - Sophia Loren
1966 - Anouk Aimée
1966 - Ida Kaminska
1972 - Liv Ullmann
1975 - Isabelle Adjani
1975 - Carol Kane
1976 - Marie Christine Barrault
1976 - Liv Ullmann
1978 - Ingrid Bergman
1989 - Isabelle Adjani
1992 - Catherine Deneuve
1998 - Fernanda Montenegro
2004 - Catalina Sandino Moreno
2006 - Penelope Cruz
2007 - Marion Cotillard
2012 - Emmanuelle Riva
2014 - Marion Cotillard
2016 - Isabelle Huppert
2018 - Yalitza Aparicio
2021 - Penelope Cruz

24 nominees. Loren, Ullmann, Adjani, Cotillard and Cruz as double nominees.

You don't understand why? Koreeda has only won 1 trifecta award ever... LAFCA International Film in 2018 which TIED with Burning. It placed 3rd at NSFC. Broker already has a lower MC than The Truth (76), Shoplifters (93), After the Storm (84), Our Little Sister (75), I Wish (80), Still Walking (89), Nobody Knows (88), After Life (91), Maborosi (92). The 74 is only currently better than Our Little Sister(73) and Third Murder (68). Where's the narrative and drive to reward this film?

Song just won LAFCA so he's at a disadvantage there. Banderas was NYFCC's first foreign actor winner since, what? Ever? Two strikes already.

In Leading yes. In supporting they have Charles Boyer for Stavinsky in 1974. But two men in 70 years are two strikes against.

[EOLB]

But then, Neon also has "Triangle of Sadness".

I've a feeling that film will have a better metascore by the end of the year and become their main horse in this race. Everything else will get lost in the shuffle like it always happens with them.

[alittle003]

If being honests, Antonio Banderas is the first leading actor to reach the trifecta and that happened till 2019. Male lead actors in foreign language films tend to struggle at critics even in weak years (Example in 2015 and 2016, which critics prefered voting for Tom Hardy, Adam Driver and Michael B. Jordan over Geza Rohrig and Abraham Attah).

Song will need the campaign of Neon (And avoiding the mistakes from "The Worst Person in the World", especially if a new nationalist comittee picks another South Korean film because Broker's director is Japanese). But then, Neon also has "Triangle of Sadness".

I stand corrected. Thank you for explaining, this actually gave me a bit more insight and I hadn’t considered this. I guess my intuition still tells me Song might do well as he seems to be a very loved actor who people want to award. But after the more lowbrow critics picks last year, I think it’s something I’ll have to see to believe when the circuit starts up later this year.

[petravonkant]

I'm usually one to lead a charge for a foreign film/actor's chances (like Cruz and Hamaguchi just last year) against the grain of skepticism but the Song predictions also feel like hopedicting to me.

I think Broker would have had to break through similarly or moreso to Shoplifters to allow for that kind of momentum, like Haneke following White Ribbon with Amour and getting Riva to likely 1st alternate. It's telling that even groups championing Drive My Car still led to Nishijima being robbed blind (to say nothing of a much more visible actor in Hollywood like Mikkelsen the year before). Song was even considered something of a surprise for the Cannes prize after not being particularly singled out in reviews and not being as much of a focused lead as it would help to be to break through to the English-language awards circuit.

And given that this wasn't even a particularly vintage year for Cannes, it feels less urgent to include a foreign auteur among this year's festival selections even from the Directing branch (the likeliest I can see might be Park for his consensus/predicted Director win, built-up industry cache and decently strong reviews), but that slot could come from Venice or simply not happen this year.

[GeorgeEastman]

I'm usually one to lead a charge for a foreign film/actor's chances (like Cruz and Hamaguchi just last year) against the grain of skepticism but the Song predictions also feel like hopedicting to me.

I think Broker would have had to break through similarly or moreso to Shoplifters to allow for that kind of momentum, like Haneke following White Ribbon with Amour and getting Riva to likely 1st alternate. It's telling that even groups championing Drive My Car still led to Nishijima being robbed blind (to say nothing of a much more visible actor in Hollywood like Mikkelsen the year before). Song was even considered something of a surprise for the Cannes prize after not being particularly singled out in reviews and not being as much of a focused lead as it would help to be to break through to the English-language awards circuit.

And given that this wasn't even a particularly vintage year for Cannes, it feels less urgent to include a foreign auteur among this year's festival selections even from the Directing branch (the likeliest I can see might be Park for his consensus/predicted Director win, built-up industry cache and decently strong reviews), but that slot could come from Venice or simply not happen this year.

Agree (sadly)

[android]

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