Best International Feature Film prediction thread 2022

[walkabout]

I really don't see Argentina, 1985 winning. It's such a by the numbers movie, not really a cinematic material, of course it's likely to get nominated but that's it. I don't see Decision to Leave getting even the nod, to be honest. It's a popular title, sure, and I personally liked it quite a lot, but it's just trying too hard and the tone is all over the place for many.

All Quiet on the Western Front's script is also messy, but it's still an effective anti-war film which people mostly like and has a chance to get other nods as well. So I guess it's between that and Close for now.

[Mrs Gert Hammond]

I've only seen 20 of the submitted films so far but would be very happy if either Holy Spider, Decision to Leave, Close or The Quiet Girl ended up with the prize but I sort of doubt any of them will.

[android]

I'm at about 13 or so. 14 today after seeing the Portuguese entry (Alma Viva)

It's still Joyland my winner (sig). Holy Spider runner-up. None of this will win duh. I really liked Girl against some of AW, so keeping expectations high for Close.

[Kostas]

OK from the EFA Close, Corsage and Holy Spider went excellent in the noms. Alcarras got Best Picture and Screenplay noms. EO and Saint Omer got Best Director noms and Favino is the representative of Nostalgia. Belgium, Austria, Denmark, Spain, Poland, France and Italy got noms there. The big absention is Germany. Zero noms in the main category. Also Sweden if you consider Boy from Heaven...

[Addison de Witt]

After watching Close I’d be surprised if that doesn’t win honestly.

[klariso]

I think one of the most consistent performances thus far is actually Holy Spider. I remember it seemed to have okay-ish word from Cannes, but it seems to be performing much better post-Cannes. Not enough to topple Close/AQITWF, but a likely nominee in the end

[Aldo]

After watching Close I’d be surprised if that doesn’t win honestly.

I also feel like it's the frontrunner. Hard not to connect with it, I was shattered after the screening. It won Audience Award at Morelia... IMO the best indicators for this category are second-tier festivals (no shade, I just mean non-Grand Slam and I'd place Locarno/Rotterdam/BAFICI in another category) and audience awards.

[Addison de Witt]

I also feel like it's the frontrunner. Hard not to connect with it, I was shattered after the screening. It won Audience Award at Morelia... IMO the best indicators for this category are second-tier festivals (no shade, I just mean non-Grand Slam and I'd place Locarno/Rotterdam/BAFICI in another category) and audience awards.

I loved it as well. I cried of course lol.

Also I loved (and recommend) The Quiet Girl, such simple story and filmaking but very effective. It hits you hard as well. That beat Belfast in the Irish Awards and is doing really great as well with audiences at festivals so it’s a big conteder for the nomination at least.

[Eduardo Zuckerberg]

Close is a tale of two films for me. 1st third is incred. Last two thirds... no. Obvious. Excellent performances though.

[Addison de Witt]

Close is a tale of two films for me. 1st third is incred. Last two thirds... no. Obvious. Excellent performances though.

I agree that first one is the best by far. I loved it so much. I understand the other parts can be polarizing.
It’s also so beautiful visually. The first shot with the 2 kids running around the flower field. Whew.

[Addison de Witt]

BTW I loved Emile Dequenne here

[Abby]

BTW I loved Emile Dequenne here

Same! She’s so good and heartbreaking, I couldn’t help but want to see a film that tells the story from her perspective. Between this and Les choses qu’on dit, les choses qu’on fait, she’s been killing it with the scene-stealing supporting roles recently.

I totally agree with everyone that says it goes downhill quickly after the first 40 minutes, but my audience cried pretty much the whole time and I think most AMPAS voters will have the same reaction.

[Nora]

Decision To Leave (Winner)
All Quiet On The Western
Close
Argentina, 1985
Corsage

The Quiet Girl
Bardo

[Daniel Plainview]

01. Saint-Omer, France
02. Decision to Leave, South Korea
03. All Quiet on the Western Front, Germany
04. Close, Belgium
05. Argentina, 1985, Argentina

[alittle003]

01. Saint-Omer, France
02. Decision to Leave, South Korea
03. All Quiet on the Western Front, Germany
04. Close, Belgium
05. Argentina, 1985, Argentina

Yes to all of this. This looks so so likely.

[android]

01. Saint-Omer, France
02. Decision to Leave, South Korea
03. All Quiet on the Western Front, Germany
04. Close, Belgium
05. Argentina, 1985, Argentina

Might even agree with these 5 but on reverse order

[Eduardo Zuckerberg]

There's always going to be a wild nominee here from the shortlist. Excited to see what it'll be and which film it'll displace.

I think Corsage is ahead of a couple of those films above as well. It seems to have wide appeal.

[Kostas]

Any predictions among the big snubbee of the shortlist and the big snubbee of the noms?

[walkabout]

I've seen 19 submissions so far, I guess. And here are my current predictions (distributor and premiere festival also mentioned, if available):

ALL QUIET ON THE WESTERN FRONT / Germany (Netflix / Toronto)
ARGENTINA, 1985 / Argentina (Amazon / Venice)
CLOSE / Belgium (A24 / Cannes)*
THE QUIET GIRL / Ireland (Super LTD / Berlin)
UTAMA / Bolivia (Kino Lorber / Sundance)

Rest of the Shortlist: Holy Spider / Denmark (Utopia / Cannes); Bardo / Mexico (Netflix / Venice); Klondike / Ukraine (Sundance); Saint Omer / France (Super LTD / Cannes); Corsage / Austria (IFC Films / Cannes); Boy from Heaven / Sweden (Samuel Goldwyn Films / Cannes); Decision to Leave / South Korea (MUBI / Cannes); The Blue Caftan / Morocco (Strand Releasing / Cannes); Joyland / Pakistan (Cannes); EO / Poland (Sideshow & Janus Films / Cannes)

Alternatives: The Kings of the World / Colombia (Netflix / San Sebastian); Alcarras / Spain (MUBI / Berlin); Safe Place / Croatia (Locarno); Return to Seoul / Cambodia (Sony Pictures Classics / Cannes); Under the Fig Tree / Tunisia (Cannes); World War III / Iran (Venice)

***

Holy Spider is a strong 6th imo, and I started thinking we may be underestimating Bardo here.

[Cephalopod]

15th ASIA PACIFIC SCREEN AWARDS:

Best Film —
WINNER: Before, Now & Then
• Poet
• Return to Seoul | 🇰🇭 Cambodia's submission
• This Is What I Remember
• When the Waves Are Gone

Jury Grand Prize:
This Is What I Remember

Best Director —
WINNER: Davy Chou for Return to Seoul | 🇰🇭 Cambodia's submission
• Kamila Andini for Before, Now & Then
• Shin Su-won for Hommage
• Ammer Fakher Eldin for The Stranger
• Lav Diaz for When the Waves Are Gone

Best Performance —
WINNER: Lee Jeong-eun in Hommage
• Happy Salma in Before, Now & Then
• Navid Mohammadzadeh in Beyond the Wall
• Aktan Arym Kubat in This Is What I Remember
• John Lloyd Cruz in When the Waves Are Gone

Best New Performer:
Park Ji Min in Return to Seoul | 🇰🇭 Cambodia's submission

Best Cinematography —
WINNER: The Stranger
• Before, Now & Then
• One and Four
• Poet
• Snow and the Bear

Best Screenplay —
WINNER: Makbul Mubarak for Autobiography
• Vahid Jalilvand for Beyond the Wall
• Park Chan-wook, Chung Seo-kyeong for Decision to Leave | 🇰🇷 South Korea's submission
• Darezhan Omirbayev for Poet
• Aktan Arym Kubat, Dalmira Tilepbergenova for This Is What I Remember

Cultural Diversity Award (under the patronage of UNESCO) —
Muru | 🇳🇿 New Zealand's submission

FIAPF (Outstanding Achievement in Film in the Asia Pacific Region) —
Nadine Labaki

Young Cinema Award (in partnership with NetPac and GFS) —
Saim Sadiq for Joyland | 🇵🇰 Pakistan's submission

Best Youth Film —
WINNER: Farha | 🇯🇴 Jordan's submission
• Alam
• Hanging Gardens
• Jaggi
• Sweet As

Best Documentary —
WINNER: All That Breathes
SPECIAL MENTION: Delikado
• Blue Island
• Children of the Mist
• Woodgirls – A Duet for a Dream

Best Animated Film —
WINNER: Aurora's Sunrise | 🇦🇲 Armenia's submission
• Dounia and the Princess of Aleppo
• Goodbye, Don Glees!
• Silver Bird and Rainbow Fish
• To the Bright Side

——————————————

Should be noted that last year, Drive My Car secured 4 noms at this ceremony (Picture, Director, Actor, Screenplay), and went on to win Screenplay and Picture.